We must assume, I think, that this is simply a well-timed bit of political trolling. But it’s worth writing about, if for no other reason than the shivers it might send down the spine of the current occupant of Aras an Uachtaráin:
Ireland, your President. ☘️❤️ pic.twitter.com/MdLQZzUwiI
— Conor McGregor (@TheNotoriousMMA) December 4, 2023
Potential competition if I run. Gerry, 78. Bertie. 75. Enda, 74. Each with unbreakable ties to their individual parties politics. Regardless of what the public outside of their parties feel. These parties govern themselves vs govern the people. Or me, 35. Young, active,… pic.twitter.com/HiLn3jAQ2e
— Conor McGregor (@TheNotoriousMMA) December 4, 2023
President Higgins, of course, will be recalled as a man of some constitutional significance precisely because of how he has expanded – with close to zero political resistance – the constitutional boundaries of the Presidency. For all of the previous occupants, the very idea of making political statements on a regular basis would have been inconceivable: The office was above politics, and the President would adopt the disposition of the British Monarch: Smiling benignly, cutting ribbons, and giving entirely apolitical speeches about what it means to be Irish.
President Higgins has changed that, and has used the office to opine on everything from domestic housing policy, to the actions of the EU Commission President, to the very fine character of Fidel Castro; and even the role of climate change in terrorist attacks in Africa. It cannot be a surprise then that one of his putative successors is openly promising to make the office a political institution to speak truth to politicians on behalf of the Irish public.
It would, in many ways, serve President Higgins right if he were to be succeeded by Conor McGregor. The universe has a way of meting out justice like that.
But could McGregor win? Perhaps the more immediate question is: Could McGregor get on the ballot?
There are, in total, three ways to get on the ballot paper for the Presidency at the moment. The first is the simplest: To be nominated as President by the sitting President himself – but the President can only nominate him or herself for re-election. We can safely rule that one out.
The second and third are to be nominated either by 20 members of the Oireachtas (Dáil and Seanad combined) or to receive the nomination of four county or city councils. At first glance, both these routes might be challenging for McGregor, since both councils and the Oireachtas are dominated by political parties staunchly opposed to his candidacy.
Bear in mind, though, that the current Oireachtas and councils will have been dissolved and re-elected by the time the Presidential contest rolls around in late 2025. Is it inconceivable that independents and smaller, McGregor-friendly parties, could do well enough to get him on the ballot? Absolutely not: And in the past, councils have proven pretty willing to help candidates get on the ballot, especially if there’s evidence that they have popular support. For the fun of it, let’s assume that he can get on your voting paper.
Presidential contests are funny things: Going into the last week of the 2011 Presidential Election, the last time we chose a new President, Michael D. Higgins was on course to finish a solid second, at best. That all changed with the infamous RTE debate in which Sean Gallagher was – posterity tells us wrongly and untruthfully – subjected to the “man with a tweet” attack about his previous alleged fundraising for Fianna Fáil. Faced with the untruth, Gallagher looked shifty, and that was all she wrote. Higgins surged, and has been President ever since. At points in that campaign, Senator David Norris was the favourite. He too, collapsed.
The point is this: In a presidential campaign, almost anybody can win given the right set of circumstances, or the collapse of an opponent.
McGregor, in such a campaign, would likely have the “anti-establishment” lane to himself – especially if, for example, Sinn Fein are by then in Government. It is not impossible to imagine him polling 35 or 40% of the vote and winning the election.
Will such a thing happen? The odds remain long. And McGregor – it must be assumed – is mostly joking.
But we can be assured of one thing: The prospect of Conor McGregor running for the Presidency just about guarantees that any plans to let the Irish diaspora overseas vote in Presidential elections will be quietly, and quickly, dropped.