How times change. A week ago, the US Government’s official advice was that children would have to wear masks this summer while engaging in outdoor activities, like playing soccer. There was something of a backlash to that, and now the messaging has changed.
And changed quite dramatically, too:
Just a few hours ago, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the CDC, announced that they are no longer recommending that fully vaccinated people need to wear masks – whether inside or outside.
— President Biden (@POTUS) May 13, 2021
The problem here, of course, is simple enough: Once you tell people that it is no longer mandatory for them to wear facemasks if they are vaccinated, you probably need them to carry some proof of vaccination with them. Otherwise, you run the risk of unvaccinated people, or those who do not believe covid is real, just un-masking themselves and hiding in the crowd.
But who are we kidding? Most of those people were not wearing masks anyway.
Un-masking, psychologically, will probably be the single biggest signal to people that the pandemic is over, and done with. That is why this is such a big decision, and why so many people will oppose it, too. Recent research has found that there exists a cohort of people – in the US, but not just in the US – who have grown quite attached to the pandemic, and the sense of well-being that wearing a mask gives them. There will be quite a few who will keep wearing them regardless.
For most people, though, taking off the mask in a supermarket, or crowded space, will be the single biggest sign that the pandemic is over. It will be very hard to get them back into masks, if there is another big wave.
Which makes you wonder: Why are they doing this now, when they have been so cautious to date. Could it be…. the results of this opinion poll?
large increases in willingness to take vaccines emerged for those who were asked about getting a vaccine if doing so meant they wouldn’t need to wear a mask or social-distance in public, compared with a group that was told it would still have to do those things.
Americans, according to the opinion poll, are up to 18% more likely to get a vaccine if it means they do not have to wear a mask.
And right now in the US – the vaccine take up is slowing dramatically:
In the past three weeks, every adult in the U.S. has become eligible for COVID-19 vaccines, which are now widely available in most parts of the country. Yet there has been an alarming decline in the number of Americans showing up to get vaccinated, even though less than half of the population has received even a single dose. While data on the progress of the vaccine rollout are difficult to parse given the many moving pieces, this is almost certainly a sign that a large number of adults remain vaccine hesitant.
The US is at about 45% of people vaccinated. The general view amongst scientists is that you need somewhere between 60 and 70% of the population vaccinated for there to be “herd immunity” to Covid.
In other words, that additional 18% of people who might get vaccinated if they get to take off their masks could make all the difference between the vaccination programme succeeding in stamping out Covid, or its failure, once you add them to those who still want the vaccine, but have not gotten around to it yet.
Incidentally, on the question of vaccine hesitancy – it is quite easy to observe it in action in the US because they’re at the stage when anybody who wants a vaccine can get one. In Ireland, we have not reached that point yet, and are probably months away. When we do get there, though, will we see a similar picture? A question to keep an eye on.