If you want to know how difficult it is to get a new political party off the ground, just ask Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín. The most recent round of opinion polls put Aontú somewhere around 3-4% of the vote: If replicated in an election, it would be an astonishingly good result, but would still likely leave more than five years of blood, sweat, and tears being rewarded with two to four seats on a good day, making the party at best a bit-part player in the next Dáil. And on a bad day, it’s not inconceivable that support at that level gets you no seats at all. Nothing is certain, when it comes to elections. The difference between a great day and a terrible day can be a few hundred votes in three or four constituencies.
Building political parties up from nothing is an almost impossible job. What isn’t really appreciated is that it is even more difficult in Ireland, due to the nature of our political system.
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Aontú would greatly increase their share if they took the necessary stance on immigration, it’s such a pity Peadar et al won’t acknowledge that this is possibly the single biggest issue for many, many voters.
Aontu: The anti abortion pro blame game Covid investigation party!! It really is a vacuous as that. I know John McG often writes them his policy Santa list but there’s no evidence that it will be anymore effective that a Braverman Tory party would be in Britain. Look at the by-election results for confirmation of that assertion L.
Anything that doesn’t have a G or a F in there name will get my vote. Krusty the clown would be an improvement on this shower. Sovereignty sold off,neutrality sold off, anything indigenous to our land sold off. Jesus wept!
This was written back in the Summer but I think it still holds up.
https://joblog.substack.com/p/if-it-walks-like-a-party-and-it-quacks
The main gist of it:
Previous attempts to bring Independents together have fallen apart due to natural centrifugal forces. They were, after all, Independents.
In recent elections the usual criticisms of Independents have been proved right.
+ they have no ideology
+ they think locally not nationally
+ they have disparate interests – no common agenda
+ they have no natural cohesion – any attempt to organize them will be strained and prone to break up
+ they are elected as outsiders and jeopardize their own futures by propping up a government
In 2023 it’s different. Now the Independents are all hearing the same problems at a local level. What’s wanted is the same from place to place – more GP appointments, more school places, more accommodation available to rent and buy, relief from a grinding green agenda.
Wherever they are in the country the Independents are hearing the same set of problems. With solutions that need to be implemented on a national level – the borders need to be policed and the benefit system made less attractive to economic refugees. EU Green guidelines need to be opposed, derogations obtained, self imposed Treaty targets neglected.
All of them sharing a common set of issues. And having a policy agenda that demands changes on a national level rather than a local one. If it walks like a party and it quacks like a party…
The political reality now is forcing Independents to adopt a common purpose. Previous to this bringing Independents together went against the grain. It seemed artificial and unsustainable. Now though the idea of ignoring what they have in common is what seems peculiar and strained.
In a sense it doesn’t matter much whether a group of Independents with so much in common go forward as a party or just as a loose alliance. The outcome won’t be much different.
To put it another way. It’s almost as if in the country at the moment the conditions for a party to be formed are so strong that people are being gathered into a de facto party despite themselves.
So Michael Collins’ and Richard O’Donoghue’s effort should have a lot more stability than previous attempts at organising Independents. Even those guarding their own fiefdoms by staying outside the party may end up acting as de facto members.
Godspeed gentlemen.
If voting was mandatory, would all those people who don’t realise the importance of voting, and currently don’t vote at all; change the game profoundly, and didpel the seemingly permanent belief among many that ” nothing will change anyway”?
People who don’t vote should lose all
their entitlements as citizens. No big party wants to see an 80-90 % turnout.
I vote and am hooeful my vote counts. There is a growing cohort that belidves if we de register, it could brinng down our corrupt government
Those who do not vote are condeming themselves to a dystopian future. With the present Plantation/Displacement Plan , and low Irish birthrate,below replacement levels the Irish will be a minority in their Homeland by 2050,’
Ireland is being ETHNICALLY CLEANSED by many surreptious means, discrimination in Housing , employment, education, financial pressures on young couples unable to start a family,abortion .cultural breakdown, RTE propagandising against the People, emigration of our young talent…
A rogue Regime that actively disregards the interests of the Irish People .in favor of illegal migrants.
The only difference betwween ethnic cleansing and Genocide is the time scale..
Ethnic cleanssing is a slow imperceptible ,’boiling frog’ process.
Genocide is a brutal and short term death and destruction process.
Ask the Palestinians.
Their ETHNIC Cleansing , process began in 1948 and is now completed.
The final COUP D’ETAT of Genocide is now taking place.in Gaza.
Irelands future is to be without a Homeland like the Palestinians unless we wake up to the danger and the insidious Planned assault on the Nation by outside interests,facilitated by the rogue collaborators of the Regime.
I was on a bus today that was half full of Somalis. We have no air, land or sea link with this failed state, but their people are now flooding in here and they are been cared for. No one is allowed to question this. They will receive Asylum. It was below galling to see Irish people giving them seats, fondle their children and talk and laugh with them, neither knowing or caring of the inevitable results of this, or the impact this will have on our indigenous future.
I expect the Irish you saw doing this are main party supporters. All their PC pretences, giving them seats and all would make ya cringe. False people. Pretenders. They are the people who would be out with banners welcoming these supposed refugees against their neighbours out protesting to show they’re not racist like the protesters.
I agree that it is difficult to get anything new started, however, the fact that things are hard to change in the Irish political system is a good thing. If things were easy to change there would be absolutely no consistency and stability in politics.