Let’s try to be fair minded to Fine Gael Senator Jerry Buttimer, and all those who agree with him: Closing schools early for Christmas and bringing them back a few days later than usual is a bad idea. But it is by no means an outrageous idea, and it is worth having a discussion about:
Prominent Fine Gael Senator Jerry Buttimer has called for primary schools to shut on Friday because he said Covid is running riot in these schools. He has appealed to the Education Minister to take this decision in the interests of public health.
— Mícheál Lehane (@MichealLehane) December 15, 2021
It is worth noting, for starters, that the Senator is correct that the primary source of infections, at the moment, is in schools. Look at the data on that here: Red is an increase in cases in an age group, green is a reduction:
https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1470456986978426885
It is also worth noting that as it happens, Christmas falls on a Saturday this year. That means that the Christmas break for schools, as things stand, is a bit wonky. Rather than two full weeks off, they finish on a Wednesday, and return on a Thursday. It would not, objectively, be the most outrageous thing in the world to close schools this Friday, and re-open them on the Monday following the date that they were due to re-open. It would mean the loss of five days, but those are by no means the most productive days on the school calendar.
So, disagree with Buttimer all you like, but his proposal is not mad. It is just, in my view, short sighted.
Kieran Cuddihy, of Newstalk, offers a compelling reason why:
People who say “it’s only 3 days and they do nothing” are missing the point.
There will be an Omicron surge and it will coincide with schools returning in January. Close them early now, and the calls to keep them closed will be deafening. #COVID19 https://t.co/GZYGi2b778
— Kieran Cuddihy (@kierancuddihy) December 15, 2021
That is, as anybody with any experience of the debate around these things in Ireland, almost indisputably true. The problem, after all, is that the conditions which pro-restriction people want to achieve – no cases in schools – are basically impossible. It is an absolute certainty, given the fact that people are people, that there will be increased contacts over Christmas, and, therefore, more cases. Closing schools now will make the case for re-opening them almost impossible to achieve.
After all, NPHET, and their fellow travellers will say: We closed the schools at 4,000 cases a day. What madness would it be to re-open them at 7,000 cases per day?
In International Cricket, when players “go off the field for bad light”, the decision about when the light is too bad is in the hands of the umpires, who use a light meter. On the first day of a game, the decision is entirely in the umpire’s hands: Is the light bad enough now? But once they decide that it is, then they must go off at any point during the match when the reading on their light meter matches what it was when they went off on the first day. If the umpires get it wrong on day one, then they are condemned to be wrong for the whole game. So it is, with closing schools.
As so often, the problem here is precedent, and political precedent at that. The Government clearly feels that the majority of the voting public remain in covid-cautious mode, open to, and in many cases actively rooting for, more restrictions. Because of this, Government is politically disinclined to take any measure which might be seen to lead to “more cases”. Remember too, the iron political law of the pandemic: When things go right, NPHET gets the credit. When they go wrong, Government gets the blame. If the Government opens schools in January against “public health advice”, and cases continue to rise, they would be making a rod for their own backs.
Close them now, then, and there is a fair chance they will not open again until almost February.
The facts, at the end of the day, are simple: The covid situation, today, as you read this, is perfectly manageable, and in fact, good. Hospitalisations have been steadily falling for two weeks. ICU numbers are approaching a mere hundred. The health service is not overwhelmed, or anything close to it. For Government to take a measure like this which is not necessary would be to set a horrible precedent for the weeks to come.
The question is whether Government have the foresight to recognise this, or whether, as so often before, Mr. Martin will jump at the chance to be seen to be doing something, and live to regret it later. If you’re a betting person, then my advice would be not to put a big stake on the schools being open on Monday, unfortunately.