The UK’s Chief Medical Officer (CMO) has said “all the modelling” indicates Covid-19 will surge through the population again later this year.
Professor Chris Whitty has told British MPs to expect more surges of Covid-19 by the end of this summer or early autumn, despite the comprehensive roll-out of vaccines in the UK.
“All the modelling suggests at some point we will get a surge in the virus. We hope it doesn’t happen soon – it might happen later in the summer if we open up gradually, or if there is a seasonal effect it might happen over the next autumn and winter,” Whitty told the Science and Technology Select Committee .
Whitty claimed a surge was inevitable as the virus would re-emerge in people who weren’t vaccinated or who had lost immunity to the disease following inoculation.
“But all the modelling suggests there is going to be a further surge, and when it happens it will find the people who have not been vaccinated or where the vaccine has not worked. Some of them will be hospitalised and sadly some of them will die,” he said.
The CMO also told MPs that there could be another 30,000 Covid-19 related deaths before the summer of 2022 due in part to the vaccine proving ineffective in some carriers.
“The ratio of cases to deaths will go right down as a result of vaccination – but not right down to zero unfortunately,” he said.
Whitty also warned that Covid-19, like the flu which sometimes causes 20,000 winter deaths in the UK, will likely be a seasonal virus most felt during autumn and winter each year.
Advising politicians against lifting lockdown restrictions too soon, Prof. Whitty said not enough people were protected against Covid-19 at this point in the UK.
“Under all the scenarios, if we unlock very suddenly, all the modelling suggests we would get a substantial surge while a lot of people are not protected,” he claimed.
The UK began lifting restrictions on Monday by allowing schools to re-open and two people to sit together outside.
Travel outside one’s local area will be permitted form 29th March, with further steps being taken in April to eventually end the country’s lockdown entirely on 21 June.