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As NUI Maynooth’s indispensable political geographer Adrian Kavanagh pointed out yesterday, Ireland’s political parties are increasingly on an election footing. While we cannot say for certain when the General Election will come, we can say confidently that the main parties are acting as if they are getting ready to fight one as early as October:
At this point, the Government Parties are ahead of the others in terms of the number of constituency selection conventions held, as of now.
— Adrian Kavanagh (@AdrianKavanagh) August 15, 2024
Number of candidates selected at this stage of the election cycle much lower than was case ahead of 2020 election https://t.co/IvaItDnxIB https://t.co/p1V0w0YCDl pic.twitter.com/4sf2kv412q
Behind the scenes, a detailed and well-thought out plan is in place with the aim of making anti-immigration candidates a functional irrelevance in that election. Candidates are being armed with support and messages that have been well-tested and thought out. I spoke to somebody who would know these things about two weeks ago and asked them what the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael message on the doors would be when it came to immigration, during the election campaign.
“We’ll say it’s a problem but we’re getting on top of it”, that person said. “We’ll point to an increase in deportations. We’ll point to action to punish the airlines for letting people in without passports. We’ll say we’re working with EU partners to bring numbers down, and we’ll mention that Ukrainian temporary protection expires next year. Most importantly we’ll say we know the problem has to be fixed but there’s a right and a wrong way to do that”.
I haven’t spoken to anyone in Sinn Fein about that party’s message, but the public outlines of it are pretty clear: They’ll tout that they oppose migrant centres in deprived and poor areas. They’ll say they want to tighten up the system. And they’ll say that the last thing we can do as a country is succumb to the kind of racism you’re seeing now on the streets of the UK.
One of the things about this job is that to do it honestly, you have to say what you see. As such, it behooves me to point out that those who purport to oppose the three main parties on this issue are woefully unprepared in terms of policy, rhetoric, or organisation to take them on.
Before getting into those areas, I will say that I was struck by footage doing the rounds last weekend of a small protest in an Irish border town. I say “small” because that’s what it was – maybe 50 people in total came out. Their signs read “Ireland for the Irish” and “(insert town name) says No”. Most of those present bore tricolours. One sign said “stop the plantation of Ireland” and another said “end the invasion”.
Earlier in the week, I wrote a piece about how social media was changing politics, and the way people communicate information, and how it is undermining both the power of the mainstream media and, in many cases, faith in that media. That dynamic is self-evidently beneficial to the political right, which is precisely why so many in the media and politics are upset with it. It strikes me, however, that social media is also doing something else which is, in the short to medium term, very harmful to the right: It is creating silos and social movements that are entirely outside the mainstream.
“Mainstream” is, of course, anathema to many people in Ireland who consider themselves activists on the issue of immigration. Rejecting the mainstream is pretty much their whole schtick. The problem is, of course, that elections by definition are fought in the mainstream. Voters expect their candidates to look and sound like them, to speak their language fluently, and to address their concerns with digestible and realistic policy proposals.
One of the difficulties here is that the anti-immigration protest movement has developed an aesthetic and a language that is entirely outside the mainstream. Normal Irish people – by which I mean the vast majority of voters – do not spend their weekends flying tricolours and do not speak to each other about invasions or plantations. When they speak of those in power, they talk about the “Government”, not “the Regime”. When they are concerned about immigration, they want to hear a politician who sounds like them, and not one who sounds like – to use a very successful line from the ongoing US election campaign – a weirdo.
This brings me back to policy, rhetoric, and organisation. The “Irish Right” appears to me – and I’m speaking in broad terms here and allowing for some notable exceptions – to be entirely unprepared and unfit for the upcoming election on all three grounds.
First, on policy, there is a tendency to confuse slogans with policies that might be enacted. “Send them back” for example is not a policy, but a slogan. A policy version of that slogan might have seven or eight different elements to it. First, for example, it might become policy that no person can be admitted to the state absent travel documents, and that such people would be held outside the state (technically in Dublin Port or Airport) until it can be ascertained where they came from. Second, it might become policy that such people would be subject to a mandatory minimum sentence of 18 months in prison if a court found that they had destroyed their documents.
Third, there might be a policy on reforming the legal system to speed up refugee applications, and establishing a dedicated court that dealt with nothing else, as well as a dedicated court of final appeal to hear appeals within a maximum period of three months. Fourth, it might be the case that those granted asylum here from safe countries would have their asylum status revoked as soon as their original country was declared safe. I could write more, but the point is simply that precise and digestible policy proposals, not slogans, are important.
On rhetoric, the point I made above should be clear enough: A serious political movement would drop the hyperventilating about invasions and plantations and regimes and (this is a relatively new one) UN soldiers. It would speak instead about capacity, fairness, and praise the Irish people for their immense generosity and open hearts, which are tragically being abused by a system that facilitates economic migration posing as asylum seeking.
And on organisation, well, I need say little more than point to the chart at the top of this article prepared by Adrian Kavanagh. Candidates need money, posters, a team, and a plan to knock on at least half the doors in their constituencies.
All of this, for cultural, financial, and organisational reasons is entirely beyond the capacities of those who would seek to challenge the Government on this issue at the upcoming election. While some damage may be done here or there, there is precisely zero prospect of a Dáil after the election with a majority view on migration that is in any way different to the majority view today.
Politics is a mainstream sport. When you place yourself outside the political mainstream, you forfeit any chance of success. That is a reality that the Irish anti-immigration movement will have to face up to either today, or in a decade’s time. Trying every other method first is of course permissible, but it might be easier just to learn the lesson the easy way.
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