As this poll demonstrates, the Irish Government has serious political problems. But those problems are not coming from the right.
Only 11% oppose
Perhaps the best way to consider this election is to ask the question: Who are Peter Casey’s 2018 supporters backing now?
A “meh” on all your houses.
A thousand male participants
The stunning thing here, really, is that the polling consistently now has Sinn Fein on course to lose seats, rather than gain them, at the next election.
A unified left, and a right that’s four cats in a bag, clawing at each other.
Electoral Commission
This evidence was there in the polls: As we went into the final week, it was clear that the more people heard about the proposals, the less sure they were about them.
As of now, the “Yes” side is in a very strong position, and it’s incumbent on the “No” side to think carefully about how to reverse that in the time remaining.
It is not the next election that the Irish establishment should fear. It is the one after that.
Gaza might be dominating politics, as Pat Leahy wrote on Friday. But immigration is dominating the minds of voters.