“Momentum” is one of those concepts that political pundits toss around without really knowing what it means – if it means anything at all. The raw truth about the referendums set to be held on Friday is that, conservatively, at least four in five of those who will cast votes in them have already decided, or have a very good idea, how they will vote. The true figure is probably much higher than that.
Nevertheless, campaigning is a psychological activity as much as it is a physical one. Those involved and invested in both sides of the campaign wish very much to believe that their frenetic activity in the final days of the campaign – canvassing, issuing press releases, obsessing over every radio debate, and so on – are making a vital difference to the outcome that will be revealed on Saturday morning. Both sides will wish to believe that they have “momentum” heading into the final hours before voting begins, and that the last undecided voters are coming off the fence in their direction.
Of course, a psephologist who’s analysed any of the last seven or eight Irish referendums would tell you that momentum in such campaigns tends always to trend in the same direction: Traditionally, undecided voters shift dramatically more towards “no” votes than “yes” votes, for the simple reason that a “no” is a vote for the status quo, and an undecided voter is by definition unconvinced of the need for change. If you’re not already on board team “yes” and sold on the idea of changing the constitution, but determined to vote, then keeping things as they are is, for many undecided voters, the objectively rational move.
All of this is to say that in final referendum polls, the percentage of voters saying that they will vote “yes” is the most important number. If that number is a clear majority, then the “yes” side is the clear favourite. If it is significantly below a clear majority, then the “yes” side is suddenly in jeopardy. They may still win, of course, but that victory is much less likely than if they have the support of a clear majority.
Last week, the Sunday Business Post/Red C poll found, with two weeks to go, the “yes” vote at 52% in the “durable relationships” referendum, and 55% in the “women in the home” referendum. Yesterday, by contrast, the Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll found those figures at 42% and 39%, respectively. In both cases, if you allocate 80% of the undecided voters to the “no” side, then the “no” side would win.
By way of illustration, in the last “major” referendum defeat for the Government, the first Lisbon Treaty vote, the final polls from the Irish Times and the Sunday Business Post had the yes side on 35% and 43% respectively. That’s the territory we’re suddenly in, if you’re a tea-leaf reader. This poll is the first published during the campaign that is consistent with a “no” side win on Friday.
The other objectively terrible news for the “Yes” side is that the Sunday Independent poll suggests that the campaign, to date, has been “won” by their opponents. Since the last Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll on this question, the “Yes” vote has fallen by five per cent in the “durable relationships” vote and ten per cent in the “women in the home” vote. This suggests that the more voters hear about the proposed changes, the less sure about them they are.
As we head into the final week of campaigning, this poses the “Yes” side an existential challenge: This is the week when voters will hear more about these votes than they have heard in any week to date, with big television and radio debates scheduled. What do you do when the evidence suggests your own message is actively turning off voters, and you’ve just got one week left, when they’re scheduled to hear more of your message than ever before? About the only thing left is to change the message, somehow.
If you want a sense of whether the Yes side is truly panicked, then (and I think, based on these numbers, it should be) watch out for new arguments from them in the coming days.
The “No” side, meanwhile, should enter the final week with confidence, and a simple message: If you’re not sure about these changes, you need not rush into making them. We can always change the constitution in future, after all, if it needs changing. “Send them back to Brussels to get it right” was a compelling message that we on the “No” side used in the last week of Lisbon one. “Send them back to get it right” might well be a compelling message in the last week of these two referendums, as well.
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NGOs their cronies and brainwashed students will vote yes
Ordinary parents workers taxpayers wilĺ vote no
Many will not vote because they are confused
Instead of lengthy and erudute explanations
Simply say, No no keeps things unchanged
In the future people should have time to calmly decide if there is a NEED to change
Instead of simply listening to Jolly Green Rodder
Parents are telling students what to vote
Voting YES will ultimately do away with the weighting of the legally binding contract that is Marriage. For example, husband & wife married for a number of years, buy a house together, properties, have kids etc. One of the duo have an affair. That affair is a durable relationship. Which potentially gives that mistress/mister equal rights to wife & kids.
Voting on something when a durable relationship has to be decided upon in the courts will clog up the courts, undermine the security of marriage & make a joke out of relationships & loyalty in general. Vote NO
Unintended consequences of a poorly thought out change.
Given the leadership of our current government (e.g. Leo\Rodders) I would think that it would be an intended consequence.
I think you’re right Peter. It’s personal victories for those 2 and their groupies and F everyone else.
Don’t forget that it will also create a new gravy train for the legal profession.
Good point.
Paving the way for borderless genderless Ireland subservient to EU UN WHO treaty
Most definitely intended
or maybe intended consequences?
That would be my take as well Cal. It will introduce chaos regarding property rights in divorce or after the death of a Spouse when the secret twenty year durable relationship suddenly comes out plus the durable relationship children who arrive in the courts with their succession claim.
I knew a wealthy lawyer who had a 20 year affair with a mistress and she got nothing when he died. Will the new
” enduring” clause help such ladies in th future.?
Most likely possibly or maybe probably. We just don’t know what a ‘durable’ relationship means.
I’ve said it before on this forum, I’ll give it a year before ‘durable’ relationship in before the High court to decide if a Muslim man can bring his 2nd, 3rd and 4th wife into the country, along with all the children
I cannot see how a court can say these are not durable relationships, especially if he’s been married for years to all 4 wives and has had children with them.
Play safe and vote NO and NO. A double NO vote will do no harm.
Have you seen tge interview with film maker Aaron Russos in which he speaks about Nick Rockerfeller?
Vote no. These people ruining this country are clueless and not to be trusted.
The people who were elected to run the country have abdicated their responsibilities and delegated power and control to the NGOs.
That’s not an oversight or accident on the part of our leaders Frank. The NGOs are their auxiliary troops. They fund them with our money so that the NGOs can then spend it to achieve the establishments desired outcome. We are robbed and lied to in one go
I doubt they are clueless. I doubt even more they have our best interests at geart
They also weren’t elected. They stayed at power because of the COVID.
Even without all the other solid reasons for voting No , O’Gorman saying that it was the responsibility of the NGO’s to deliver a YES vote should be a massive incentive for a No vote .
Does the taxpayer really need to be paying 6 billion per year for the privilege of having their thoughts controlled and their minds manipulated?
I have yet to find one single, credible reason for voting yes
Strike a blow for transparency and say no to hidden agendas.
The Irish people have been hoodwinked before . Don’t let them do it again .
Anybody can be conned once – only a fool falls for the same con twice.
The only safe option is to vote No and No.
If O’Gorman then fulfils his threat to withdraw funding from the NGO’s it will be a win double for common sense and sanity .
He won’t withdraw funding from those who control the political establishment.
All you have to do is use your common sense by asking yourself do you trust the people pushing this totally unnecessary referendum on us. Have they proven themselves to have the native citizens of Ireland’s best interests at heart when dealing with say border control, children’s moral education, using public facilities to push an agenda not long ago would have seen you before the courts, their dealings with farmers etc etc.. In other words have they been honest with us during their period in power or have they shown themselves to be dishonest. Safe and rare comes to mind, yep be it abortion, border control, demographic changes, climate taxes, farming, Covid jabs and children’s education they have not been honest so what makes you think they are being honest about their reasoning for the upcoming referendum. By your deeds you shall be known, just open your eyes when going around this small country and you can see what they’ve done.
If they weren’t so arrogant they would cancel it and use the money for something necessary
Housing crisis, hospital crisis, GP shortages….
Children crippled with scoliosis while these c__ts give six thousand million euros a year to NGOs. That alone should condemn these arrogant pigs.
There was also a budget to bring refugees pets into the country!
I’m very excited about the Ireland Thinks / Sunday Independent poll also (maybe a bit overexcited given that their earlier poll was also very poor for the Yes side. Their methodology seems more favourable to us than RedC or B&A). But the momentum is unmistakable.
Also completely agree with your final paragraph.
The “No” side, meanwhile, should enter the final week with… a simple message: If you’re not sure about these changes, you need not rush into making them. We can always change the constitution in future, after all, if it needs changing… “Send them back to get it right” might well be a compelling message in the last week of these two referendums, as well.
I’ve been making the same point here
https://joblog.substack.com/p/the-yesyes-sides-winning-argument
And now, having agreed with John on two points in the same article, and having found nothing to disagree with him on, I think I’m going to go and lie down for while.
Voting yes is a vote for polygamy and more family reunification
Throuples and polyamorous..and dependant 31st cousins
Facebook friends?
We will be more Muslim friendly than Saudi Arabia.
If someone phones me and asks me how I will vote…. in the present climate of cancel culture, disinformation, rigging of public opinion (and why-not polls too?), random arresting on the basis of random definitions of ‘Hate’, and with the a bunch of wanna-bes trying to enslave us… I will give them the answer they want to hear! I’m not stupid! This is why the MAGA vote is always 50% or more lower in US polls.
Sadly, it doesn’t matter. If the government loses this (and isn’t it bizarre that they have an ‘agenda’?) then they will just run it again at a later date and throw more of our money at it.
The voters job is to get them out of Leinster House so or at least out of power for a very long time.
Be very careful with polls showing sudden swings like this. Do not be complacent or think your No No campaign is finished. A day or so before the abortion referendum, the Irish Times front page screamed something like ‘it’s 50/50 on abortion’, a lie to encourage people to vote yes. As we now know, the result was roughly 66% in favour of abortion. How did it go from 50% to 66% in a matter of two or three days? Everyone in the country must have bought the Irish Tines the day to help them make up their minds. I haven’t bought it, or any other Dublin paper since, nor have I watched or listened to RTE or any other TV or radio station, Irish ir British. They lie, and I do not trust them any more. Now I feel free and get all my information from Gript and other similar outlets.
John Austin, Limavady, Northern Ireland
Remember folks, a no and no vote will do no harm.
A proportion of people will vote No because the government advocates Yes
In fairness, I’m hoping people will see how unnecessary this referendum is and use common sense and do no harm but voting NO and No.
In the Journal.ie this morning there’s an article by an associate professor on why she’s vote yes and yes. There’s nothing she says that requires a referendum or cannot be dealt with by legislation.
The whole thing stinks of distraction politics on the part of the government. There are more important issues to be talking about.
WHO pandemic treaty..global power grab must be stopped before May
Badly written, this should have been the first sentence of the article:
Hse.ie home suport