In case you missed it, news broke this week that Ireland’s Navy, such as it is, is confined to port. The country possesses four small frigates, with two more recently purchased from New Zealand presently en route. Though we are an island nation, we have never been much of a naval power throughout the years of our independence. The Royal Navy of Denmark, a country almost identical in size, population, and strength of its economy, has a fleet with 40 ships the same size or larger than the biggest of Ireland’s four frigates. It also has six submarines. We have four frigates, and none of them are at sea because:
The navy’s personnel crisis has sunk to new depths as it is now so short of frontline sailors that, for the first time, none of its four ship-fleet, worth €280m, has been able to go out on patrol.
This really should be a much bigger scandal than it is: As a neutral country, our Naval service does not fight battles, and would last about three minutes – with no disrespect to those serving – in a conflict with a hostile country. The reason it exists is primarily a policing one, where its job is to protect our fishing fleet and territorial waters from fish thieves; intercept drug shipments and other illegal maritim activities; and provide rescue services in the event of a ship in trouble. Those are important roles, and they cannot be carried out this week because of the Government’s overt neglect of the armed forces.
A neglect, by the way, which is overwhelmingly popular. Or at least, not unpopular. Which is the main reason, I would argue, that fears that the current Government or any future Government over the next few decades will move to join NATO or another military alliance are entirely misplaced.
Finland, which joined NATO this week, has a population roughly the same size as Denmark and Ireland, though it is much less of a maritime nation than either. Its Navy, nevertheless, is 25 ships strong. It has a standing army twice the size of Ireland’s, with 180,000 trained reserves. Its air force comprises 55 f-18 fighters costing about $66m each, and it has 65 F-35 superhornet fighters (costing about $80m each) on order.
NATO membership requires a country to spend 2% of its GDP on defence. In Ireland’s case, the country currently spends €1.1billion annually on the army, navy, and air corps. If we were to join NATO and increase our defence spending to 2% of GDP, that figure would have to rise to between €9 and €10billion annually. If we were spending at that level, we could quite easily match the Finns and the Danes both in the air, and on sea.
It’s simply not going to happen.
Irish voters have a particular aversion to spending on defence, which, I think, is a hangover (though we’d never admit this, even to ourselves) of our extended membership of the United Kingdom. Defence is simply London’s job, not ours. It is their Navy’s job to protect us, and the RAF’s job to protect our skies, and we get to spend our money on more important things, like health, and funding the Irish Council for Human Rights.
Given the apathy and lack of national shame we feel about having a four-boat Navy that we cannot staff, it is ludicrous to suggest that an Irish Government could ramp up defence spending to 9 or 10 billion annually because of the possibility that we might need to send Irish forces to defend Estonia, or, worse, Taiwan. Irish voters simply regard doing those things as the job of London or Washington.
And yet, because we do not take our own security seriously, we remain vulnerable. Just last week, it was reported that there were – allegedly – Russian ships in Irish waters loitering suspiciously around those parts of the sea where essential undersea cables are located. Our own ships were in port at the time, for lack of sailors.
Further, the idea that neutrality means we are not a target seems naïve beyond measure: Dublin cannot simultaneously be, as we assert, one of the main financial centres of the European Union, and at the same time not a target for the enemies of the European Union: It is an obvious target, either for cyberwarfare, or in the worst case scenario something more serious. In a conflict, the undersea cables connecting Europe to North America, which run through Irish waters, are an obvious target.
In military terms, though, we have chosen, and chosen explicitly, to remain a satellite state of the United Kingdom, under its protection. That is a legitimate choice, but it is one we really should be more honest with ourselves, and the world, about. Instead, we cope with it psychologically by pretending that we’re morally better for not spending money on arms, and opposing wars, and having a navy that’s confined to port.
But I am not sure that’s at all true.