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There’s a stunning factoid in yesterday’s Irish Times MRBI opinion poll that will probably get missed by most: That fact is that, amongst the oldest people in Irish society, Fianna Fáil is in rude political health. Amongst the over-65’s, the party is polling at 37% support, fully 15% ahead of its nearest competitor, Sinn Fein.
The problem for Fianna Fáil is that once you go much younger than 65, its support begins to fall off a cliff: it gets 25% of the votes of those in the 50-64 category, but only 12% of the votes of the 25-34 age group.
Still, the party has a base: Old people still vote express intent to vote for it in large numbers, and, as we know, older people vote in greater numbers than younger people, as a general rule.
For Sinn Fein, the opposite is the case: It has the backing of nearly half the youngest voters, with 45% support in the 18-24 age group, and 38% of the 24-34s. Again, it’s not perfect, but it shows that the party appeals to a particular demographic.
Which leaves us, amongst the three larger parties, with Fine Gael: That party’s best showing is a mere 19% of the very middle age group – the 35-49 year olds. It is the only age group in the country where Fine Gael is in second place. Everywhere else, the party is beaten into a distant third.
The slump for Fine Gael is across all age groups, and all provinces, and amongst males and females equally. That is a problem because it suggests that the opposition to the party is broad and deep and not connected to any one group in society. It suggests, in plain terms, that people might just be sick of them.
At the same time, nobody else can draw much comfort from the figures: On these numbers, Sinn Fein are not on course for a whopping great landslide victory, and will have to hope that they make gains solely based on better candidate strategy.
The existential problem for Fine Gael is this: On these figures, there is a reasonable chance that they may be relegated to being the country’s third party. If, which is not impossible, Sinn Fein were to cobble together a Government with independents or smaller parties, or with confidence and supply from Fianna Fail, then Fine Gael could easily find themselves not even leading the opposition after the next election. It’s perfectly conceivable that they could end up a rump party of 20 TDs or so, sitting in the position occupied, for so many years, by the Labour Party.
If that happens, and Fianna Fail were to become the leading party of opposition, it would be very difficult to see a path back into the big two for Fine Gael. In many ways, both FF and FG’s future depends on beating each other, not Sinn Fein, at the next election.
The real winners of the poll, in fact, are independents. Support for independent candidates now rivals Fine Gael – at 17% to FG’s 18%. Independent candidates have another thing going for them that Fine Gael does not – that they are transfer friendly and likely to rake in a much broader and consistent number of second and third preferences as counts go on.
Most of all, though, the poll paints a picture of a country broadly unhappy with its options.
There is nobody racing ahead of the pack in the race to form the next Government. For all of Sinn Fein’s opposition to the Government, they are either standing still or going backwards. There are no advances of note for the smaller parties. The two largest parties of Government are locked in an existential battle to potential political death.
Nobody has captured the imagination – but, it seems, lots of voters are very clear who they are absolutely sick of.
As I have written before, with all parties stagnant, and all party leaders with relatively low approval, the ground is ripe for somebody from one of the smaller parties to impress and really shake things up in an election campaign.
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