For those who have even a passing interest in politics, it’s no secret that the government are having their backsides consistently handed to them on a platter by Sinn Féin in poll after poll.
And it’s been a long time coming, too. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have seen their vote shares decline considerably over the years, and that trajectory does not seem to be changing any time soon.
To make matters worse for them, with Fine Gael TD Joe McHugh just abandoning ship, the government coalition is now officially a minority in the Dáil, and they are staring down the barrel of a Sinn Féin motion of no confidence.
Sinn Féin president @MaryLouMcDonald says her party will table a motion of no confidence in the Irish government next week https://t.co/eHXFxu39qM
— BBC News NI (@BBCNewsNI) July 8, 2022
While the government will likely survive this, the fact that they are in such a vulnerable state has reportedly led to absolute chaos and conflict within the coalition – particularly among Fianna Fáil backbenchers.
“F**k Sinn Féin, f**k Fine Gael, f**k them all. We are Fianna Fáil,” said one Fianna Fáil Senator according to the Examiner.
'F*** Sinn Féin and f*** Fine Gael': Fianna Fáil backbenchers group says party needs to fight back https://t.co/vTzZTmXkIu
— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) July 7, 2022
“We are the largest party in the Seanad, the largest party in the Dáil, the largest in local government.”
Bit of trouble in paradise there, it seems.
In light of all this, now is probably a good time to do what their legions of highly paid special advisors apparently can’t: actually identify some of the ways they’re cocking up, and how to possibly fix it.
1. Stop pursuing policies you know are horrendously unpopular
This one really isn’t rocket science, now, is it?
Putting aside personal opinion, and just looking purely at the facts, it’s absolutely true that the government has consistently pursued policies which the public have clearly said they don’t want. Which is kind of the most fundamental mistake you can make in politics.
For example, the government supports carbon tax so much, they even increased it during a cost-of-living crisis. But you know who hates carbon tax? 82% of Irish people.
The government moved to raise Ireland’s 12.5% corporate tax rate last year. But you know who didn’t want to raise our corporate tax rate? 59% of Irish people.
The government wants no caps whatsoever on Ukrainian refugees. You know who does want a cap? 60% of Irish people.
The government wants to end Irish neutrality. You know who doesn’t? 66% of Irish people.
The government is in favour of radical trans ideology. You know who isn’t? 68% of Irish people.
Also minimum unit alcohol pricing – 70% of people just didn’t want it. Etcetera, etcetera – I could go on.
Some of these are very important to voters, like the carbon tax issue, which directly impacts their life. But even for the seemingly less important and more abstract ones, like trans issues or corporation tax, these things accumulate over time.
If every single time you make a policy announcement the public are irritated, that adds up. If every time a person opens the newspaper they’re annoyed by what they see you doing, they’re eventually going to get annoyed at you. Duh.
The bottom line? Stop pursuing policies which people are clearly telling you they don’t want.
2. Ditch the Green agenda long-term
From a practical perspective, the government feels like they need the Greens short term to hold the coalition together. And to an extent that’s unavoidable. But in the medium- to long-term, they need to be looking at a decoupling. Because the Greens and the green agenda are going to kill Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael stone dead.
Polling shows that over 8 in 10 people oppose Green policies – and not in a casual way. In an energised, passionate way.
And why wouldn’t they oppose it? It drives up the cost of fuel and home heating for ordinary people, and it puts unsustainable regulations on fishermen and farmers, making it nearly impossible to do their job. Same goes for peat harvesters and horticulturalists.
You even have Eamon Ryan saying that cheap holidays will be a thing of the past by the time he’s done with the economy.
Government hoping to stop cheap flights to sunny destinations in bid to 'save the planet 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 https://t.co/HXEuKCbYe1
— Conor.mortimer ⚽️ (@Conmort) April 10, 2021
Obviously people don’t want this. Obviously people are going to react badly to you telling them “By the way, we’re intentionally making your quality of life worse on purpose and making it harder to do the things you enjoy.”
The government has committed itself to loads of international climate targets. But who would you rather win over? European politicians, or the voters you rely on to stay in your seat?
The green agenda has won the governing parties nothing but hatred and scorn. For every one plucky young college student you may win over by environmentalist pandering, you lose at least 3 other people who are infuriated by their petrol bill. It’s not worth it – for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to survive, the Greens simply have to go.
3. Focus on bread and butter issues – not irrelevant waffle
The government likes to talk about liberal social issues quite a bit.
For example, Emer Higgins’ bill on making 40% of company board members women. Or moves to promote climate change-related artwork, or whatever.
But every minute the government stays focused on these things is a minute they could have spent dealing with things people actually give a crap about – like, say, housing.
We live in a country that is riddled with violent crime and drug addiction.
170% increase in young people treated for cocaine use https://t.co/5xSG9evSo0 via @rte
— Fergal Bowers (@FergalBowers) June 8, 2022
Many people live with no realistic prospect of ever owning their own home. The waiting lists in hospitals would be comical if they weren’t so serious (and by the way, we know that was bad before Covid – the pandemic is no excuse).
These are the kinds of things people worry about. They couldn’t give a damn how many LGBT rainbow crosswalks you lay down, or whether there are gender quotas for media companies. It does not cost them one minute of sleep at night to think about whether Dublin should have a directly-elected mayor. They do not care.
People want to live in a safe country, where they can be seen by a doctor in a timely fashion if they’re hurt, and where they can one day own a home if they work hard, among other things. All of this other irrelevant waffle is a total waste of time.
That’s why Sinn Féin focus almost exclusively on housing, health, childcare costs, and so on. And that’s why they’re winning.
The fact that the government’s armies of special advisors apparently aren’t telling them all of this common sense is a rip-off, and shows what a waste of money those positions actually are.