Why the political establishment should fear Niall Boylan

One of the things about politics is that well-intentioned amateurs habitually assume it to be much easier than it is. That is why, for the last five or six weeks, Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty has been showing up at every sports event and cocktail party south of the Liffey, shaking hands in her Leinster Shirt. At the same time, some of her citizen candidate opponents (not all, but some) have spent that time posting on social media about what they are going to do when elected.

Every now and then, there comes an election when it is obvious that the electorate is in a state of tumult, and that the possibility of real and dramatic change is possible. Possible, though by no means guaranteed.

Nevertheless, such elections draw people who see a chance of winning where none might previously exist: I know of what I speak, for this is exactly what happened to your correspondent, all the way back in 2011 when I sought a Dáil seat as an independent in Cavan Monaghan. Then, as now, there was a mood for change in the air: The Fianna Fáil vote had collapsed, there was palpable desperation in the country, and the electorate was rebellious. I threw my hat in the ring, gave it my all, and like many people who saw the same opportunity…. promptly lost my deposit. I lost my deposit, I should note, about as credibly as one can – when I was eliminated on the third or fourth count, I’d accumulated almost 2,000 votes. “You’ve a council seat in the bag for next time”, one well-intentioned party man said to me. Perhaps I had, or perhaps he was being very sympathetic. Either way, I wasn’t interested.

The current elections have a similar vibe: As I joked on twitter yesterday, you’re basically nobody these days if you’re not running for Europe or the County Council. The increase in independent votes in the polls – and the rebelliousness demonstrated by the voters in the recent referendums – is drawing candidates to the ballot paper like the proverbial flies to the waste produces of cattle. It is a simple reality that many of these candidates will have their hopes crushed, brutally, come count day.

One, however, strikes me as different: Niall Boylan’s entry – which will be formalised at a campaign launch this morning – into the Dublin European Election campaign is not just a case of another part-timer throwing their hat into the ring and hoping for the best. Instead, here’s a candidate with political assets and skills that most of the political parties would kill for, and a message that should be entirely in tune with a big chunk of the electorate.

Let’s start with the assets: Name recognition might be the single most important factor in Irish elections. That, above all, is why candidates spend tens of thousands of euros on election posters. If you are reading this, then you’re probably somebody who follows politics closely enough to know who Regina Doherty is, or who Ciaran Cuffe is. That puts you in a small fraction of the population. If you know who (and I write this with no disrespect to the man) Malachy Steenson is, then you’re in a smaller fraction again.

Niall Boylan, by contrast, has been a voice on the airwaves of Dublin for years. Not only do a great many people know who he is, they’ve also had time to get to know him as a personality, and form an opinion about him. That helps in two ways: First, because it means most of the legwork of the campaign – introducing yourself – is taken off the table. Second, because it makes attacks on his record and policies much more difficult. If you’ve a positive opinion of Niall Boylan formed over twenty years, you’re much less likely to change that opinion because People before Profit are now saying he’s a bad article.

Move on to the skills: Ireland is not a country known for producing politicians who are super communicators. To be a radio host for as long as Boylan has been, and to maintain the audience share he has, requires an ability to connect with listeners on an emotional and intuitive level. That’s something that’s also required in my job, to a degree: I’d not last long here if I was alienating readers every day of the week and failing to grasp their concerns. As it is, I manage to confine said alienation to one or two topics, usually involving the Republican Nominee for the White House or the virtues of the Kremlin.

Boylan has been doing this a lot longer than me, and with more success. The last time a well known broadcaster with similar skills sought election was George Lee, for Fine Gael, in South Dublin. Lee won almost half the first preference votes, in part because people felt they knew him and could trust him. That’s not something many politicians have.

Finally, there’s the issue of message: Boylan will not be the only candidate in the field raising the issue of immigration and the problems that issue is causing from a populist perspective, but he will be by far the most high profile. This will allow him to distinguish himself clearly on policy from the alternatives, almost all of whom are establishment parties. A simple message of “vote Boylan to show how annoyed you are about this” is potentially kryptonite to his opponents, including his opponents on the right who may get crowded out of the conversation.

Now, all these advantages do not guarantee victory: The political establishment in Ireland is the political establishment precisely because it is better at winning elections than anybody else. That skill, and that skill alone, is what keeps them in power. A majority of voters, it’s safe to say, will still vote for FF or FG or Sinn Fein or Labour.

But here’s the thing: Boylan does not need to get 50% support to win. He needs the support, by the time of the final count, of 20% of voters. One in five. That’s still an immensely steep ask, but he’s better positioned than any other “outsider” candidate in the race to achieve it.

If he keeps it simple, and focuses on his own message, and trades on his existing popularity, then you’d be a fool to bet against him taking a seat. With all the shockwaves that such a result will produce across the political – and media – firmament.