If you are a daily reader of Gript, you’d have encountered this conclusion, about the recent surge in Coronavirus in the US, on our site two days ago:
You can see that the surge in hospitalisations is more recent than the surge in cases, and that makes sense. Some people who were diagnosed three weeks ago are only being admitted to hospitals today. Remember, in the case of Boris Johnson, for example, his hospitalisation came fully ten days after his diagnosis.
And if there’s a surge in hospitalisations, then there is a real chance of a surge in deaths.
That was two days ago. The news today:
FL today shattered its daily death record, with 120, 45% more than the 83 reported dead on April 28
Daily hospitalizations also hit record highs of 409. The 7-day average of 288 is well above the pre-reopening peak of 171
Oh, & school classrooms are nothing like big box stores https://t.co/9GS3GgnrGc
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) July 9, 2020
Nationally, the 7-day average in deaths has begun to rise after an extended decline. The last three days were the highest numbers we’ve since early June. pic.twitter.com/fRlYZeYrxa
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) July 9, 2020
The thinking had been that because these new cases were disproportionately amongst the young and healthy that we’d see no upsurge in deaths. The “the virus is overstated” crowd have been banking on it, and understandably so. It would have been in everyone’s interest for them to be right.
But the problem of course is that you don’t get the virus today and die tomorrow. It can take weeks, and as a result, the big surge in cases while deaths fell was lulling some people, perhaps, into a false sense of security.
The really horrendous news here is that if this uptick in deaths is proportional to the uptick in cases, America is in for a month of nightmares. America is up from about 600 deaths a day a week ago to almost 900 deaths a day now.
America’s Coronavirus Supremo Anthony Fauci says states should consider lockdown 2.0:
States with rapidly expanding coronavirus outbreaks should seriously consider “shutting down” like the country did when the virus first hit the U.S. in March, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said.
His comments Wednesday come as the U.S. continues to push records for new cases reported each day, driven primarily by states in the South and West, across the so-called Sun Belt.
“What we are seeing is exponential growth. It went from an average of about 20,000 to 40,000 and 50,000. That’s doubling. If you continue doubling, two times 50 is 100,” Fauci said on a Wall Street Journal podcast. “Any state that is having a serious problem, that state should seriously look at shutting down. It’s not for me to say because each state is different.”
Exponential growth and new lockdowns? The new lockdowns won’t happen, of course, at least not if President Trump has anything to say about it. He’s bet the farm on re-opening the economy being more important to voters than stopping the virus. What we’re watching is, in essence, the “herd immunity” strategy being played out in the biggest country in the world, at the cost of nearly a thousand lives a day. Will voters really reward that? The polls say they will not, so Trump supporters better hope those polls are wrong.
In Ireland, by the way, cases are ticking up again, too. Gulp:
"We are seeing an increase in the number of reported cases over the last 2 weeks and the R-number is now at or above 1. There is an immediate need for all of us to take care and caution in our decisions and actions.”
— Richard Chambers (@newschambers) July 9, 2020
We’d all like the “virus is over” people to be right, of course. Some of us are even determined to believe it, regardless of the evidence. But the evidence is clear: The virus is not over. It may well be coming back for a second bite sooner than we thought.