As bad as things got for Donald Trump in the polling – and they did get very, very, very bad – they never quite got this bad:
Among fellow Democrats his approval rating stands at 70 percent, a relatively low figure for a president, especially heading into the 2022 midterms when Mr. Biden needs to rally Democrats to the polls to maintain control of Congress.
In a sign of deep vulnerability and of unease among what is supposed to be his political base, only 26 percent of Democratic voters said the party should renominate him in 2024.
Mr. Biden has said repeatedly that he intends to run for re-election in 2024. At 79, he is already the oldest president in American history, and concerns about his age ranked at the top of the list for Democratic voters who want the party to find an alternative.
The backlash against Mr. Biden and desire to move in a new direction were particularly acute among younger voters. In the survey, 94 percent of Democrats under the age of 30 said they would prefer a different presidential nominee.
It’s hard to blame Democrats, but it’s also, oddly enough, hard to blame Mr. Biden. Many of the issues that afflict him are not entirely his fault: Inflation is a global problem, for example. And Democratic frustration about a lack of big-ticket progress on Climate Change or healthcare or guns or abortion isn’t his fault either: The Democrats have tiny majorities, and most of these items are unpopular, so they did not pass. Biden’s in a horrible position where his approval rating is low with normal people because he tried to pass so much unpopular legislation, and low with his own party because he didn’t succeed.
And then there’s abortion: The conventional wisdom was that the reversing of Roe v Wade would be manna from heaven for a troubled White House, which would be able to campaign on the issue all summer and boost flagging Democratic fortunes. But the Democrats and pro-choicers are now faced with the same issue Republicans and Pro-Lifers had for 30 years: This was a court decision, not a political one. You can’t reverse it in an election. The activists are enraged and angry, but there’s little they can do, little Biden can do, and, of course, they’re blaming him for that. There’s almost nothing now that can stop a Republican landslide in November’s midterms, and that, paradoxically, might be Biden’s best hope for two reasons.
The first is that with Republicans controlling Congress, Biden will have someone to blame, and a common enemy to unite his party around. “We could do all this if it wasn’t for those Republicans in Congress blocking me” he will say, which is half the truth. The full truth is that the Republicans will be blocking him, but he also couldn’t do it with Democrats in charge.
The second reason is that the Republicans will certainly, 100%, do stupid things. Like, for example, forgetting about inflation and spending their time investigating Hunter Biden’s laptop instead. And that a large section of that party will see 2022 as proof that “Trump can win again” in 2024.
Mr Trump, now, is Biden’s best and likely only hope at a second term. Consider, for example, all the concerns about Biden’s age: “He’s too old and doddery”, some say. That’s compelling, but it loses a bit of it’s punch when you nominate the 78-years-old-in-2024 Donald Trump to replace him. “Toss out grandpa, and put in….. Grandpa?”
Further, Biden will be able to fire up his party: They hate Trump more than they hate just about any other nominee. “I beat him before”, Biden will say, “and I’ll do it again”.
Anyway, politics being what it is, the fact of the matter is that almost nobody in America wants Trump or Biden on their respective tickets next time out. But that’s what they might get: Because Republicans think Trump can beat Biden, in his horribly weakened state, and Democrats will think only Biden can beat Trump.
Anyway, I’ll leave the Trump fans amongst my readers with this thought: Ever heard of this guy called “Ron DeSantis”?