While the main source of media celebration regarding the Census results was the sharp decline in the number of people identifying as Catholic – a much more profound change in my view than anything to do with actual religious observance – nobody appears to be questioning the headline figure on national origin.
This is given as 12% “non Irish citizens” but does not include people born outside of Ireland who have dual citizenship or who have acquired Irish citizenship.
The CSO’s more detailed table shows that just 81% of those enumerated in the 2022 Census were born in Ireland. That represents an increase of just 135,164 from the 2016 Census, and a sharp decline of 4% in the percentage of people living within the state who can properly be described as Irish having been born here.
Some of the proportional decline in the Irish born population reflects a continued decline in the number of births, while there continues to be a steady flow of school leavers and college graduates and people with jobs who emigrate to other countries for a combination of reasons including the difficulties faced even by people on good incomes in securing affordable long term accommodation.
The main factor, of course, is the continued and accelerating growth in immigration.
That is now on such a scale that the arrival of more than 83,000 people from Ukraine must be added to last year’s findings. As must the influx of large numbers of people claiming asylum here from countries other than Ukraine, as well as somewhere in the region of 50,000 work permits. Added to that are people who come to live here from other EU states.
That increase in the year since the Census was taken is at least equivalent to the total increase in the number of Irish people over a six year period between 2016 and 2022, and in one twelve month period.
Which would suggest that the proportion of people living here who were born outside of Ireland is already over 20%.
If the rate of immigration is sustained over the rest of the decade, it will mean that more than one million people will have come to live here from other countries between 2020 and 2030. That exceeds even the more extreme forecasts made on the basis of the Project 2040 national development scenario.
So the general conclusion is that the much trumpeted increase in the population of the Republic of Ireland is not unlike the celebrated growth in Gross Domestic Product. The great bulk of it is accounted by external factors.
If you compare the figures for 2022 to those for 2016 given in the table above it shows that the population of the state designated by citizenship and stated nationality increased by 460,771.
Of that number, just 135,164 were people born in in the state who were enumerated as being of Irish nationality. Which means that 70.7% of the increase in the population since 2016 is accounted for by people who are not of Irish birth.
This closely correlates with the PPS statistics which we have regularly referred to here which have consistently indicated that well over 70% of new issues are going to people of non-Irish nationality.
Indeed, that provides a better picture of the trend as it reflects the increasing proportion of the workforce and of those who are claiming social welfare who are non-Irish.
This would mean that if the population grows by a further million over the next ten years, then, on current trends, 70% of that increase will be accounted for by people coming to live here from overseas. The population would then be over 6,200,000 and 30% of the population would be of other than Irish birth.
It ought also be noted too that these projections are well ahead of the six million that was forecast by the ESRI to be the population of the 26 counties in 2040 in a “high migration” scenario. They thought that a more likely figure was 5.66 million. Which would mean that the population would only increase between over a 20 year period by less than it has since 2016 alone. At an annual rate of less than 23,000 compared to the average of more than 70,000 since 2016.
We have previously pointed out that a report by Davy’s which estimated that 66,000 houses would have to be built each year up to 2025 was based on their own reference to the increase of 240,000 in population in the five years to 2022.
In fact, that rate of growth is increasing and shows no sign of easing given current policies.
All of this will have profound implications for all aspects of Irish society in the coming period. The establishment will continue to claim that all of it is an unmitigated boon. While at the same time developing collective amnesia over the fact that the current statistics make a nonsense of their previous estimates on which they are supposed to be basing their “planning.”
The truth is that they have no clue of what is likely to happen, nor no idea of how to cope with it all other than to hope that the positive external dominance of the economy and tax revenue will allow them to ad lib their way into the unknown.
When it comes down to it, the rulers and aspirant rulers of the Republic of Ireland, have no more control over where this state is headed than do those of Sierra Leone or Azerbaijan. And worse, no real desire to.
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