As the numbers-addled counters and tally persons enter another day of counting, moving piles, checking, peering, and speculating like demented card counters at a Las Vegas Blackjack table, we will attempt to provide you with an overview of how things stand.
I will also essay a no doubt wildly inaccurate guesstimate of where things might end up.
Starting with the Midlands North West constituency the following is a table showing the order of those still in contention after the 16th count compared to where they were on first preferences. And how many transfers they have accumulated since. The quota to be reached is 113,325.
| Count | Party | 16th Count | 1st Count | Transfers |
| Luke ‘Ming’Flanagan | IND | 103653 | 78214 | 25439 |
| Maria Walsh | FG | 83060 | 71476 | 11584 |
| Nina Carbery | FG | 82086 | 73888 | 8198 |
| Barry Cowen | FF | 78841 | 73903 | 4938 |
| Ciarán Mullooly | II | 71107 | 52297 | 18810 |
| Peadar Tóibín | Aontú | 54531 | 40742 | 13789 |
| Michelle Gildernew | SF | 52129 | 45807 | 6322 |
| Lisa Chambers | FF | 50648 | 44069 | 6579 |
| Chris McManus | SF | 35235 | 29427 | 5808 |
| Neil Blayney | FF | 34074 | 30387 | 3687 |
That is the situation following the 16th count which was the distribution of the votes of Saoirse McHugh, the independent former Green Party candidate. Her votes were spread widely, with Ming Flanagan being the biggest beneficiary and ensuring that he will be elected, and he will most likely reach the quota over the next few counts.
Blaney’s votes will now be transferred and that will ensure almost certainly that the two Fianna Fáil candidates, Brian Cowen and Lisa Chambers, will receive sufficient to move Cowen into second place ahead of Maria Walsh and Nina Carberry; and Chambers ahead of both Michelle Gildernew and Peadar Toibín.
The next to be eliminated will be Chris McManus the sitting Sinn Féin MEP from Sligo and his votes are certain to boost Gildernew above Peadar Toibín who will then be the next elimination. The real question then will first be whether McManus can put Gildernew ahead of Mullooly and then whether Toibín’s transfers will close that gap and perhaps put Mullooly ahead of Gildernew and therefore assured of taking the fifth seat.
The other seats will go to Flanagan, Cowen, Walsh and Carbery. One clue as to the popularity and likely destination of remaining transfers is how many each candidate has gained over the previous counts. Flanagan has been the most popular, picking up more than 25,000 and increasing his first preferences by a quarter.
Mullooly has done surprisingly well across the board, although with the caveat that many of those eliminated to date have been candidates with similar issues around immigration. As has Peadar Toíbín, which will ensure that a large part of his transfer is also likely to go to the former RTÉ correspondent.
Gildernew will need an internal Sinn Féin transfer of more than 60% to get ahead of Mullooly and probably also to do better than Mullooly on the Toíbín distribution. The first is almost certain, the second not so much.
At this stage I’m going to plump for Mullooly and we shall keep you updated.
