Leading economist says Level 5 lockdown cost 100,000 jobs when Level 3 was working

A leading economist has taken issue with the claim that the Level 5 lockdown has driven a fall in Covid positive tests – and he has asserted that the additional measures cost Ireland 100,000 jobs when “level 3 was working.”

Dan O’Brien is chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs, and a lecturer in UCD.

He tweeted that ‘looking at the evidence’ it did not support the claim that the Level 5 lockdown was working, and pointed to the trend in testing positivity rate which “changed from 17 October, stabilising and then falling”.

1) "Level 5 [lockdown] has worked".

This claim made on @TodaywithClaire just now. Let's look at the evidence, because it does not support the claim.

Trend in testing positivity rate changed from 17 October, stabilising and then falling. pic.twitter.com/JaFvBU2N2g

— Dan O'Brien (@danobrien20) November 12, 2020

He added that Covid hospitalisations peaked on October 20, before the country moved to Level 5.

2) Covid hospitalisations peaked on October 20, before moving to Level 5. pic.twitter.com/GvVG8I8D2g

— Dan O'Brien (@danobrien20) November 12, 2020

Mr O’Neill then pointed to the decline in new cases – and said that the downward turn showed Level 3 was working, but that Level 5 was then introduced.

3) Inflection point in new cases came in the week lockdown was imposed. No doubt lockdown has contributed to the marked decline since, but given lags Level 3 was working.
Taoiseach announcing level 5 said "we have already introduced what is probably Europe’s strictest regime." pic.twitter.com/rvtZiDzcBb

— Dan O'Brien (@danobrien20) November 12, 2020

While he acknowledged that restrictions must be part of any strategy to contain Covid he said the loss of more than 100,000 jobs because of increased restrictions should be the focus of an inquiry.

“But the loss of more than 100,000 jobs as a direct result of Level 5 – when Level 3 was working – will surely be one of big questions posed at the Covid public enquiry when it happens,” he wrote.

4) Covid is really serious and restrictions must be part of any strategy to contain it. But the loss of more than 100,000 jobs as a direct result of Level 5 – when Level 3 was working – will surely be one of big questions posed at the Covid public enquiry when it happens.
Ends

— Dan O'Brien (@danobrien20) November 12, 2020

Analyst Graham Neary who has been a critic of the increased restrictions agreed with O’Neill’s assertions.

Testing and test positivity seemed to turn around almost exactly at the same time that Level 5 was implemented.

Many possible explanations for this but as you say, the claim that the actual implementation of Level 5 changed the trend doesn't work.https://t.co/KfsvutICUX

— Graham Neary (@GrahamNeary) November 12, 2020

Others disagreed: