Those who have followed the apparently interminable debate about the UK’s so-called Rwanda law will be familiar with the critiques levelled against it within the UK from both right and left. From the perspective of liberal opponents of Rishi Sunak’s flagship migration law, the policy is an inhumane outrage – sending defenceless migrants to a landlocked third world country in central Africa rather than housing them in Britain is, to Guardian-reader eyes, the kind of thing only the most heartless of right winger could dream about, let alone enact.
From the perspective of Sunak’s right-wing critics, the law is greviously insufficient: The UK has been beset with an unprecedented migration crisis, with thousands of people resorting to crossing the English Channel in rubber dinghies, and thousands more arriving at ports and airports. Staking the border security of the country on a few monthly flights to Rwanda may have seemed, to Daily Mail reader eyes, the equivalent of trying to staunch the bleeding from a severed limb with a sticking plaster.
What events of the last few days in Ireland have demonstrated, however, is something that those right-wing critics missed: The impact of the Rwanda policy on the behaviour of migrants.
The Irish Government is presently complaining to anyone who will listen, domestically and internationally, that some 80% of new asylum applications in Ireland are now arising from a cross-border flow of migrants, fleeing Sunak’s Rwanda policy. Sunak’s response, over the weekend: They’re right. It’s working.
Sunak is of course correct, because of something that is all too often missed in discussion of immigration policy: Migrants, by and large, are rational actors. They are looking, when deciding where to migrate to, for the country and economy and welfare system that will give them the best deal, and the best chance of building the kind of life that they want. It matters not that much to a rational migrant whether his or her chances of deportation to Rwanda, from the UK, are 5% or 95%: Once the chance is greater than zero, there’s a deterrent effect. In Ireland, the chance of being sent to Rwanda is presently zero, which means Ireland is a more attractive destination for migrants than the United Kingdom is.
For about six years now – if not longer – the Irish Government has refused to consider the impact of its policies on migrant choices. To listen to any Government spokesperson, or senior Irish journalist (but I repeat myself) one might imagine that immigration is just something that has happened to our unfortunate politicians in the manner of the weather. Despite Eamon Ryan’s best efforts, the Irish Government cannot avoid or deter the rain. And despite Roderic O’Gorman’s best interests, we simply cannot avoid or deter immigration.
Last week, at the Oireachtas committee on Justice, in the midst of one of the most disastrous ministerial performances at such a committee in decades, the Minister for Justice announced, having looked into the hearts of the Irish people, that they did not want or desire a “Danish style” immigration system.
So what has Denmark (unlike the UK, a fellow EU country) done? Here’s Politico Europe:
Denmark — under Social Democrat Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and her center-right predecessor Lars Løkke Rasmussen — has pursued some of the toughest immigration policies in Europe over recent years. Denmark’s policies were initially seen as extreme in countries such as the United Kingdom, Sweden and Germany but over recent years lawmakers in those states appear to have moved closer to Copenhagen’s line, and to some extent, followed its example.
In the last decade, Denmark has integrated an increasingly harsh stance on immigration. In 2023, Denmark revoked residency permits for Syria refugees, declaring some parts of the war-torn country safe for return, before backtracking after international backlash. In 2021, the country passed a law that could allow refugees arriving in Denmark to be moved to asylum centers in partner countries, such as Rwanda, a proposal which the European Commission criticized. It also looked hard at detaining asylum seekers on a remote island.
The most recent immigration numbers for Denmark show that in 2023 that country had net migration (the increase in population when immigrants and emigrants are set against each other) of 30,172. Ireland, in the same year, per the CSO, had net inward migration of more than twice that number, at 77,600.
Denmark and Ireland, lest it need pointing out, are countries of very similar land area, economy, and population. One might get the impression that policy matters.
And it does: Over the same period that Denmark was adopting progressively harsher migration policies, Irish politicians were adopting progressively friendlier ones: A globalised announcement at the beginning of this Government’s term of office that direct provision would be abolished and that migrants would get own-door accommodation; Generous welfare benefits; the right to work in Ireland within six months; a deportation policy that appears to exist mainly on paper, as a theoretical system, rather than anything working in practice.
A migrant making a choice between Ireland and Denmark, or Ireland and the UK, does not have much of a choice to make at all, assuming that they are broadly rational people.
The former US President, Ronald Reagan, had a theory about how to win the cold war: The more you spend on defence, he argued – the more powerful your armed forces were – the less likely it would be that you would ever have to use them. Strength is a deterrent.
The same principle might be applied to the UK and Sunak’s Rwanda policy – and indeed that of Denmark. The point of the “cripplingly expensive” (in the words of some opponents) scheme is that you rarely actually have to use it. Faced with the threat of a worse outcome, a lot of rational people who should not be in the UK have chosen to self-deport themselves to Ireland.
In Ireland, by contrast, where self-deportation has no much worse alternative, more people are arriving than leaving.
Absolutely none of this is hard to understand. The only thing that is hard to understand is how long it is taking Irish politicians to figure it all out.
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They won’t accept them back from here until the French agree to take them from the UK. Well we have Helen McEntee (sorry Tayto) to negotiate with the uk to get the terms and conditions that we want on our terms. We are F*#ked. She doesn’t even know her own job description.
Think the meeting between McEntee and Sunak is cancelled today…..wonder why. You are right Paula, we are f*#ked big time. They have no control and never think of any consequences. Over 80% of immigrants coming from the UK and we are paying for them. You couldn’t make this shite up. It will be interesting to see what happens now!
Nobody is forcing us to accept them. We are accepting them out of choice, because we are a heavy mass immigration country. We could put checks inside the border if we wanted. We are free to do what we like in our own jurisdiction. We are a joke.
This is all smoke and mirrors as far as I can see. If they wanted to they would just start deporting now. Stop the big benefits and it will sort itself out. Were the borders not protected successfully during the pandemic? Why can’t they use the methods they were using then, and start placing fines on the airlines if they are allowing people to travel without a passport. They kept foot and mouth disease out and won an award but humans are flooding in as if it’s a holiday resort
This is an artificial diplomatic row manufactured out of desperation for political gain. The Irish government have alienated a huge section of the electorate over the immigration issue by constantly calling them far right and racist. Now we are expected to believe that they have only just realised that some of the migrants enter via Northern Ireland. The sudden row that has erupted with the UK is less about the coalition parties only just realising that migrants are coming in from Northern Ireland and more about them realising that denigrating your own citizens is not a vote winning strategy.
But as usual this coalition government seems to be out of touch with reality and seem lack any sense of self awareness. It has not gone unnoticed over the last 30 years in the UK just how many Irish travellers have moved from Ireland to their shores and it has not gone unnoticed how many illegal encampments have to be dealt with every year despite the provision of countless numbers of halting sites all over the country. Considering how discreet and diplomatic the UK has remained for decades despite this being a considerable burden to them it is actually embarrassing to see Irish Politicians suddenly throwing their toys out of the pram and engaging in megaphone diplomacy over for political gain over the migrant route from the North. It simply makes them , under the circumstances, look like opportunistic, self centred , narcissists and unfortunately does not reflect well on Ireland or the Irish people . But like I say , this coalition government does seem to be out of touch with everyday reality and does seem to lack any sense of self awareness. Irish people have every right to be resentful at how they are being made to look by this government because it is beyond embarrassing.
You would be amazed by the number of people who think that Michael, Eamon and Simon are the only TDs of the calibre capable of representing Ireland on the International stage and that Mattie, Carol, and Michael Collins would be inadequate for the task. The opposite must be true I would contend.
THEY CAN NOT EVEN STOP PEOPLE GETTING OF PLANS WITH NO PASSPORTS. ITS A SAD DAY FOR IRELAND THIS GOVERMENT MUST GO , NO CHOICE BUT TO POLICE THE BORDERS.
That woman is a simpleton.
Helen Tayto is truly clueless. She is also a prevaricator and a serial liar. Like the bad girl in class, she is now being outed by events beyond her control.
Miss Potato Head.
This largely stems from Rodric O’Gormans announcement recently in a number of languages that folk seeking asylum in this country would have their own door accomodation within 3 or 6 months in the system. By right, an election should be called forthwith. We haven’t seen anything yet I suspect.
Yes that’s exactly what I thought, o Gorman is getting away with more than we will
Ever know.
No, it’s a result of giving asylum seekers the right to work in 2018. If you get rid of the right to work, numbers would fall by over 90%.
The mainstream media in the UK are quite happy hosting endless debates on the channel dinghy crises so they don’t have to address the unsustainable levels of legal migration. It was 700,000 thereabouts last year. Ireland’s levels of legal migration are also unsustainably high. Very few people are saying no to all immigration. We are talking about unsustainable rates of migration and some of us are concerned about security and cultural compatibility of mass immigration from the Muslim world. When legal migrants in Britain and Ireland gain citizenship of the UK or Ireland they have free movement across the common travel area of our islands.
Leo’s 2040 plan in effect.
We have, proportionally, three or four time the rate of inward migration as the UK, and if it’s recognised as an emergency over there….
Have you done a survey that found very few people are saying no to all immigration? Go and get your welcome banner ready. You are an apologist for immigration on top of a tiny island of 5 million. With the numbers we have in, a full stop must be put to immigration immediately. Dublin city and many towns have been destroyed. You want ‘sustainable levels of migration’ on top of what we already have, without a mention of kicking any out. I want the friendly Irish back in Dublin. Others have gained dominion who are hostile, they even commandeer the priority seats on the buses.
Lovely – the Brits are refusing to take em back & good luck with the French.
And all because, this catastrophic bunch of arseholes found it hard to put the word “No” into their ‘portfolios’.
The politicians have spent the last ten years pandering to NGOs because they were afraid of a critical editorial in the Irish Times. It doesn’t seem to have occurred to them that the people might not agree with their deranged plan to import the third world. There will be blood on the streets before this reaches some kind of an end. These fools have ruined the country.
From your earlier article on this:
Have official numbers on this been published anywhere by the Irish government? — this data must be available somewhere.
That article also said that an Irish court laughably declared that the UK was not a ‘safe third country’ for purposes of asylum, due to the Rwanda policy.
Here is a very recent story on this:
Rwanda policy: UK-Ireland tensions rise as asylum seekers cross from Northern Ireland
It was nothing less than monumental incompetence that an ironclad replacement for the Dublin Regulation was not negotiated and signed as part of Brexit.
An edgier, harsher, more visceral observation: it is bizarre and infuriating how white countries allow themselves to be manipulated and bullied by a bunch of non-white third world migrants — the amount of societal energy and capital spent and wasted on that throughout the West would be very difficult to overestimate.
It’s an excellent stroke that Britain has pulled on us, such a strategy takes cajones, something our government doesn’t have. It’s probably also a pay-back for our frustrating Brexit in as much as we could.
Our government are fabulous at preening and strutting but regards running a country? Pleasssee.
Exactly right John. Incentives matter and it is time that the government focus on reducing or eliminating the pull factors – immediate eligibility on arrival for generous social welfare, social housing etc. bringing illegal immigrants to our shores.
100% in agreement.
90 days only
The problem with trying to reduce the ‘pull factor’ is that Irish courts will make that difficult — remember: an Irish court ruled not long ago that asylum seekers cannot be returned to the UK because of the Rwanda policy — experience shows that literally every time something is tried to reduce the numbers or the ‘pull factor’, an NGO will file suit and courts almost always side with migrants.
Ultimately, the problem is the international treaties themselves, e.g. the 1951 convention and its 1967 addendum — these are very heavy on the ‘rights’ of migrants and the responsibilities of signatories (the nations that agree to accept applications for asylum) — every white country must repudiate those treaties or they will all be demographically destroyed this century.
Precisely. Ireland will soon be like the old woman who lived in a show with so many children she didn’t know what to do.
You have made a very valid point there. Signing up to these treaties and conventions has played a major part in the erosion of our sovereignty.
The NGO’S chickens have not only come home to roost but have laid a massive problem for this country. This was all too predictable but reality rarely impinges on certain people in this country.
>all too predictable
Not much about all of this surprises me anymore, but I was genuinely surprised that an Irish court would rule that the UK is not a ‘safe third country’ due to the Rwanda policy.
I would not underestimate the problems this ruling may cause — and as a reminder: NGOs would be no trouble at all without: 1) governments funding them, 2) governments paying attention to them, 3) the media backing them and their causes, and 4) friendly courts playing along.
That seems the intention. Every country in the world will be declared an unsafe harbour for refugees and then Ireland by default will become the only country deemed safe enough for them,. The adulation and acclaim we will receive from the international community will be unprecedented.
The Irish regime and their Sinn Fein backers are wasting their time and our money passing legislation. Sinn Fein supporters have been jailed in England for complicity in the death/manslaughter of Vietnamese refugees and John Brady, Sinn Fein’s hard man in Wicklow, is damning the women and children of Newtownmountkennedy from a height. The Army Council and their NGOs have too much riding on this,. Then there are all their lawyers, who will defend, at our expense, the Africans currently occupying Mount St Bridge and the Wickoow Hills. We currently have a Vichy goverrnment and a Quisling opposition, who threaten people for saying the Rosary in Wicklow and make all kinds of sinister threats against Catholics in Hardwicke St flats. Drew Harris’ riot squad goons have turned Newtown into Leinster’s Crossmaglen. To coin Yeats, the centre cannot hold and that is probably a good thing. A long, hot summer awaits
Minister mcentee(minister descriptive only),had the benefit of a full analysis of this move, she saw it as a benefit to her policies on migration.The British will not take these migrants back spurred on by the inadequate performance of mcentees response to mcnamara, the migrants will be encouraged to come here and the irish government will harbour them.more tax payers money to the ff/fg cumann new landlords.
In a nutshell.
It’s the difference between gormless political gullibility.
And pragmatism.
Compassion shouldn’t be seen as bleeding heart gullibility.
The pearl clutchers and perpetually outraged won’t be paying the long term cost’s.
We and our descendants will.
Mind when senior politicians think national interests and sovereignty are practically hate speech.
Plus the parasitessubservient/msm ngo classes.
It’s a good idea to consign both to footnotes in political history.
The “80%” figure (regarding cross border entrants to the State) has been queried by Oliver Callan on his RTE show this morning. His point is – it has to be said – not without basis given the lack of official recording of means of entry used. However – par for the course – Callan “lobs in” – that the “80%” figure is Far Right DisInfo. Rather than recognising that a bit of “anecdotal” evidence – combined with intuition as to the average migrant’s “modus operandi” (now that the Rwanda law is on the statute book) – give a plausible basis to the “80%”, Callan reaches for the “Far Right bogeyman”. Nice one Oliver from a licence fee payer !
Why on earth are you paying the licence fee??
Have to echo Mr Lotuseater on this one – don’t give them a dime.
That’s something that they are instructed to push relentlessly at the public.
Much easier than analysing the information and how true it is.
The government has the data and could give a very good estimate — an opposition member should very publicly query the government about this, i.e. in a way that it’s impossible to ignore.
What opposition ?. There is none. That’s a big part of the problem
Don’t listen to that RTE crap. It will rot your brain.
Labels are the resort of those who do not have any valid arguments and cannot cope when they are faced with the truth.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting” Sun Tzu. Paddy put down the pint !! As Ahmad, Igor and George are taking your other Three Green Fields………..and BOX CLEVER
A “no work no food” policy would also help for all able bodied people both asylum seekers and Irish even if it means hard labour. Those coming for freebies would be deterred while genuine asylum seekers who want to work hard become self-supporting and independent would be no burden but benefit to Ireland.
Bollox to “Asylum Seekers”. Let them fix their own countries & not Kelargise Ireland.
Duh.
Good man! — or woman — that’s the attitude.
Those coming for freebies will immediately start rooting. I still support giving the feck all as the riots are coming anyway.
Nobody is asking the most obvious questions and it’s obviously being ignored intentionally. Who is paying for the flights to Belfast and how are they able to get on the plane without Id or what Id are they using and who gives it to them. Once you have the answers, you will soon realize, it’s very much intentional.This is classic cloward piven strategy.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dWfevyiwzaM
Not sure who the commentator is, but very good to see that the events in Wicklow and regarding the Migrant-pact are getting such traction.Edit
– the video is from barrister and Senior Counsel Una McGurk
Also this (worrying to see) – a bomb threat made by a named individual for Killarney train station –
https://www.overdeewall.com/free-speech-crimes/josef-urbanszky-has-made-terrorist-threats-against-irish-people-drop-a-bomb-in-killarney-station/
And, unrelated but I’ll post it here for now in case anyone is interested and transfer it later.
Humza Yousef resigned this morning when he learned he didn’t have the numbers to survive a no-confidence vote
Despite the row with the Greens, it was essentially Hamas-Humza’s ‘hate-speech’ bill which brought him down.
This bodes well for us against the pricks here still trying to reanimate the Irish ‘hate-speech’ legislation.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrqW_eJxWA
As for the Scottish Green Party, they actually have a paedophile-wing –
Grown men who dress as babies and as little girls. Post paedophile imagery, etc.
Also a manifesto section, but it’s secret and only members can access
Links on some of this here – https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-quiet-part-out-loud/
And https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-paedophile-charter/
(Sorry about the long comment-chain – can’t include the links otherwise)
Now, this website Wings Over Scotland has been taking a stand over the hate-speech and tranny-issues in Scotland, and this is why the stuff on their Greens is relevant, and the bloke behind it (he’s not a ‘Reverend’, that’s just a joke from him about people adopting the title over there to give themselves an air) has been on a good few occasions been harassed over his critiques of Scottish politicians.
Have a read of some of his articles on this, wherehe describes how the hate-speech laws there were already being used against Scottish feminists –
– their ‘Women Won’t Wheesht’ -slogan (i.e., ‘women won’t keep quiet, but will speak out against the erosion of their rights caused by male ‘transwomen’) was classed as ‘hate-speech’.
Other earlier examples even prior to the legislation included George Galloway and Angus Robertson bringing charges against an activist who merely quoted their own words back at them – apparently when they weren’t making the statement themselves but when they were spoken back to them their own statements constituted “abuse”.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/into-darkness/
Scroll down through his twitter feed –
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland
He has some amusing and pertinent commentary on there.
Normal sensible opinions held by the majority of people both in Scotland and Ireland, jokes and satire.
Which was about to have him taken down under the Hate Speech laws under Humza-the-Hamas-supporter, before the prick resigned, and the Scottish Green Party which has a large contingent of degenerate members which form the LGBT-wing of the party which publicly post pictures of themselves roleplaying paedophilia.
And it was this lot who began bringing in hundreds of ‘hate-speech’ claims against women’s rights activists and political commentators who had highlighted their perverted online behaviour when the law was signed this spring, and the scottish police had already begun to take action in this regard on behalf of them.
Which sounds mental. But it’s all there in the links.
Send them all back over the border as soon as they arrive. If this keeps up we are heading for a very disturbing future. This is unsustainable.
Wouldn’t hold your breath. When the chips were down, they choose to second riot police from the North to intimate local villagers in Newtown rather than send dozens of Irish police to the border to turn migrants around.
The bold Gendarmes will always take the path of least resistance.
Copy Denmark and stop letting them in. That’s the answer. All our borders are open. Any old bogus can arrive and land where he likes in Ireland, which is the cause of the current deluge. The floodgates are open. The buses and trains from Belfast are the latest venture. They all know Ireland is a complete push over, with the best benefits in the world. New housing, purpose built for the bogus, the Irish not allowed in, its government being madly pro mass immigration. The Justice Minister is springing to sign into an EU migration pact that will ensure there will be mountains of them arriving forever on top of us. The deluge will continue, the floodgates wide open. Varadkar claims those who oppose government policy on mass immigration, are spreading hatred. McEntee has a big hate bill ready to criminalize anyone who opposes what McEntee thinks. What she thinks, opposes the Irish people and the Catholic religion and welcomes the fake. We have slipped from democracy into dictatorship. Blame SF. They did not fulfill their role in opposition to oppose. Instead they joined the coalition, applauding mass immigration daily. SF are anti border globalists who will not allow checks on our land border. They want the illegals in. There is a bad rot in Ireland. In my view, more anti-immigration candidates are needed to run in the elections. Independents can always form a loose alliance later. Main thing is to get elected. We all must vote for them. Ireland depends on them. We should take to the streets more often. Sunak loves his country and wants to protect his people. Our government hates us. In balaclavas now at night, the riot squad and all getting the replacement job done against us. The bogus waiting in the wings. It will go down in history because this huge demographic shift is as important as the major plantations.
>Copy Denmark and stop letting them in.
An issue specifically mentioned by the Danes is social cohesion: they are worried about the long term effects of ethnically fragmenting their country — every European country has a huge bureaucracy concerned with ‘integration’, but all you have to do is visit any larger city in Europe to see what a joke that is — these people are not European, and mostly do not want to become European — they want to live in their own ghettos while being subsidized by European taxpayers (of course they don’t pay their way, the Danish study that led to the decision to drastically limit migration showed that clearly).
The Danes finally realized that.
Obviously looking at the increasing confrontations with police over migrants, Ireland already has a social cohesion problem caused by migrants.
A Rwanda Bill of our own is the only viable migration release-valve for our government out of this mess now. Chances of them rushing in *that* bill? – 0% Chances of them hobbling our options with EU’s crippling migration pact instead – 100%
Migration will be the issue that takes this government down before it’s term, because they are too incompetent to do what will be required when every other country pushes the problem to their neighbour. We’re the last neighbour in line, on the edge of Europe.
Hate to say it but good on the Brits for doing something. While we dance on to the EU tune and for what Replacement?
Ireland’s difficulty is Britain’s opportunity. If Rishi can substantially reduce the number of asylum seekers remaining in the UK he might be able to get his re election campaign back on track. The ball is in your court Eamon Michael and Simon.
Roderick O Gorman and his Fine Gael associates have created what the Americans call a “Clusterfuck”
A truly stellar “Clusterfuck”. There are 225 million Nigerians fleeing poverty, and we have not declared it a safe country.??
What do you expect, other than an invasion.??
strange how people land in dover from outside the EU with no money or I.D and get to dublin , and ff/fg blame sinn fein who are not in goverment ,and irish people beleave anything the ff/fg/g cowboys say..
Shinner alert !!!!
All of our politicaL parties are complicit in the immigration mess.
It’s a troll. He was on here yesterday trying to derail a thread with bullshit, nonsense and agitation. Today he’s trying a new angle. He’s got a few different names with different characters. Best thing is just to downvote him to keep his shite out of everyone else’s way.