A very bad poll for the political class on immigration

If one were to read the Sunday Independent’s coverage of its own poll yesterday, one might have been forgiven for thinking that the joy in Government buildings might be unconfined. The headline on Jody Corcoran’s flagship piece made abundantly clear what readers were supposed to think of the results: “Public rallies to the centre ground”, it read. The text of the piece was similarly ebullient, leaving the reader in no doubt that the poll showed Irish people rejecting extremism – whatever that might look like – and all of its works, and all of its empty promises:

Nobody knew for sure what the impact would be, other than that there would be an impact — and what an impact there has been, according to today’s Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks opinion poll.

For example, few predicted that a majority would say the minister in the crosshairs, Helen McEntee (54pc), should not resign in the wake of the riot. Almost as many said the Garda Commissioner Drew Harris should not go (50pc).

Many would have also expected a fall in support for the Government, and for its law-and-order wing of Fine Gael, in particular.

When the results of this poll arrived yesterday there was surprise, then, to see not only a continued slide in support for Sinn Féin (28pc), down seven points in two months, consistent support for the government parties and strong support for McEntee herself.

With due respect to Jody Corcoran, that is certainly an interpretation – but it’s almost certainly the wrong one.

For example, a Garda Commissioner who can muster the support of just about half the population for the proposition that he should not resign can hardly claim to carry the broad support of the population. Politicians, by their nature, tend to have a lower support base amongst the public than officials like the commissioner, but even so, Helen McEntee’s position is not especially strong.

But it is on immigration where things really go off the rails for the political class as a whole, according to the polling.

Consider the finding, for example, that 55% of the public are more concerned about the growth of the far right than immigration, as opposed to 42% who are more concerned about immigration than the growth of the far right.

Take those numbers at face value, and you might think they are good for politicians and the media. But then put them in context: How many in politics, and the media, and academia, and polite society in general are making the argument that the far right is more dangerous, and how many are making the opposite argument? Suddenly the poll might not look so rosy for the “centre ground” after all, since four out of every ten voters are explicitly rejecting the message that bombards them every time they turn on a radio station or open a newspaper.

It doesn’t end there: 28% of the public, in this poll, say they would either vote for, or be open to voting for, a party with an explicitly anti-immigration agenda. Were those voters to mass around such a party, that party would immediately become the second largest – if not the largest – in the country.

When offered a specific option – in this case Conor McGregor, the outspoken former MMA star – to lead such a party, 8% of people say they would vote for a McGregor-led party, to 92% who say they would not. A bad result, you might think, on face value: But such a party would immediately be more popular than the Labour Party, the Greens, the Social Democrats, Aontu, or People before Profit. It would be the fourth largest in the state on day one. It should also be noted that McGregor, for all his fame, probably carries larger political liabilities than most. Were his name substituted for somebody else’s – say, for argument’s sake, George Hook’s – then those numbers might suddenly begin to look much more threatening.

The poll does show, make no mistake, that there remains a majority behind the political class as a whole. That majority, however, is tenuous. A huge section of the population – somewhere between the 28% who say they’d vote for an anti-immigration party, and the 42% more concerned about immigration than the far right – is explicitly unrepresented in politics by any of the major parties of Government or opposition.

It is also conspicuously under-represented in the media, and in radio and television debates. Despite that, immigration is now ranked as one of the top four issues for voters.

In this context, it is very difficult to agree with the Sunday Independent’s interpretation of its own poll. One might put a brave face on it – as the paper certainly did – and declare that for now, a majority are more worried about the so-called “far right” than anything else. But the numbers in outright dissent are clearly growing, and growing at a very rapid pace. The political door is wide open, per this poll, for a party sensible enough to appeal to people on the immigration issue, so long as they can avoid sounding like total headbangers on other issues.

That, thus far, has been a challenge none has been able to meet. The political class should be hoping that this remains the case.