On email, regarding my piece this morning on the weekend’s opinion poll:
“John,
I don’t know how you can trust any opinion polling in Ireland after the disastrous record of polling in last year’s referendums. Everyone knows polling is about narrative-setting, not data collection”
Well, two things: First, you can’t have it both ways. You know all those times we write articles about how 73% or whatever it is of Irish people think immigration is too high? Those numbers come from opinion polls. If polling is just narrative setting, why would you believe that number either, and why wouldn’t the polling companies just massage the numbers to make that “7% of Irish people think immigration is too high”?
Indeed, this poll also has – as my piece mentions – lots of bad news for the Government. More people oppose them than are willing to vote against them, which suggests that the Government is being propped up by weak opposition.
Second, the referendum polling really wasn’t that bad. In fact, without bragging, I wrote a piece two weeks before the vote saying that the opinion polls were actually pointing heavily in the direction of a double “no” vote. You can read that piece here, to refresh your memory.