The Sunday Business Post noted a pattern in its poll yesterday, one that both explains the result of the last general election and bodes serious trouble for the country moving forwards.
Irish politics is in a miserable state: Nobody is popular enough to command moral authority. Nobody is unpopular enough to feel their job at risk. We are caught in an endless cycle of “meh”:
“A clear political divide between homeowners and renters has emerged which will cap support for the current government and boost opposition chances of power.
This weekend’s Business Post/Red C Poll shows 43 per cent of homeowners would vote for either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael in the next election, compared to just 25 per cent of those who do not own their own home.
Observing individual parties, renters are twice as likely to vote for Sinn Féin as homeowners, 31 per cent versus 16 per cent. In comparison, renters are half as likely as homeowners to support the government, with Fianna Fáil 13 per cent versus 22 per cent and Fine Gael 12 per cent versus 21 per cent.”
It is a firm law of democratic politics that various life markers make you more politically centrist or right wing, and less left wing. Married couples vote to the right of singles. People with children vote to the right of people without children. People who own homes vote to the right of renters. People with good paying jobs vote to the right of the unemployed or those on low wages.
The reasons for this are not hard to understand: The more you have, the more you stand to lose from radical change. The happier and more contented in your own life that you are, the less desirous you will be for radical change in the country.
One of the conversations this writer has most often with people who stop me on the street or approach me at events is where people struggle to understand the enduring popularity of the relatively un-loved coalition that governs Ireland, or how it is that the public at the last election could have voted for “no change”. The reason, essentially, is that the vast majority of Irish people are doing pretty well, all things considered. Their children go to pretty good schools, their mortgages are affordable, they have decent jobs, and while they might be annoyed about the health service or public wastes of money, little enough of it affects them directly. If and when that changes, big things may happen: Witness the devastation of Fianna Fáil in 2011.
But for now, enough people are doing well that while they may not like the Government, they also have no desire to take a massive risk by voting in the primarily left-wing opposition. There’s no alternative that they like, even though they clearly want one.
If you want evidence of the unpopularity of the Government, then the fact that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael between them can only manage the support of four in ten home-owners is probably the biggest takeaway from this weekend’s poll: In the face of that radical left-wing alternative Government (which is what the coalition of Sinn Fein, Labour, the Soc Dems and Greens would be) the fact that six in ten people with their own homes are willing to chance that outcome speaks to radical disillusionment with the people currently in office.
But to what end? Consider that in yesterday’s poll, Sinn Fein also lost support, as did Labour, with the Social Democrats and Greens remaining solid. Taken overall, the support for the Government parties stands at 37%, while support for the left-wing opposition stands at 35%. The remaining votes split everywhere, though Independent Ireland and Aontu will be delighted to be splitting 10% between them.
What can be gleaned from these figures is that there is no genuine public enthusiasm for anybody. While they hold office, FF and FG are shadows of their former selves in terms of popularity. While they pose a threat, there is zero evidence of public appetite for a left-wing alternative. And about a third of the electorate wants some other option, but cannot decide on what it might be.
The worst news for the public in this poll is that there’s no pressure on anybody to get better. Every party in the poll can take something away from it that’s positive: All of the opposition parties are hanging on to their votes. There’s no prospect of any of them facing electoral wipeout. FF and FG meanwhile are unpopular but not unpopular enough to fear being tossed out of office if there was an election tomorrow.
The public, disenchanted and disaffected, still cannot decide who to give a kick to, and who to embrace. The politicians, by contrast, know that if these figures hold, then the majority of their seats and livelihoods are safe. That’s the real tragedy of this poll: If you operate on the theory that politicians need to work hard to deliver for the public in order to hold their seats, then Irish politics in 2025 would tend to prove you entirely wrong.
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