The public need have “no fear” of a general election, announced Leo Varadkar yesterday. Which is an odd choice of words – because politicians tend to be much more afraid of elections than the public are. We generally don’t stand to lose our jobs in one, after all:
"People need not fear an election anytime soon."
— Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) May 19, 2022
As it stands, the next election is not due to be held until 2025. The Government, like all moderately unpopular Governments, will hang on for as long as it possibly can, while it retains a majority. This makes sense: When you are in Government, you tend to delude yourself that your policies simply haven’t had time to work yet, and that by 2025, or whenever, the public will suddenly be feeling the benefit of all the brave and foresightful decisions made in 2021 and 2022.
The problem, of course, is that this is not always true. Things can get worse, as well as better. If inflation continues to bite, and a recession takes hold – alongside things like food shortages caused by Russia’s decimation of Ukraine’s ability to export grain – then Government politicians might find themselves, in a year or two, looking back wistfully to the halcyon days of May ’22.
The opposition, of course, always wants an election. Or to be precise, always pretends to want an election. Part of being in opposition is, of necessity, pretending that you are very popular and speak for the people against the out-of-touch administration. The truth though is that the opposition can read opinion polls just like everybody else. The Labour Party, for example, are as likely to lose seats as gain them. Independents are always in a perilous position. Smaller parties always want more time for local candidates to establish themselves. Sinn Fein might privately hope for the present Government to take the worst of the global economic battering that’s now possible, and take office at a more fruitful time.
The problem for the voter – not that we have any say in the timing of an election – is that it’s not immediately obvious on the present polls that an election would solve anything, anyway. An honest reading of the latest Irish polling data is that in an election, the Green Party would be decimated, which many voters might welcome. But the consequence of that is that it is unlikely that there would be an obvious coalition able to command a majority. We’d likely just get the Social Democrats, alongside perhaps Labour, in Government. And they believe the same things as the Greens anyway.
The likeliest outcome of an election, held today, would be that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would return something like 60 seats between them, and that Sinn Fein would return something like 60 seats by itself. Both blocs would be 20 or so seats short of being able to govern on their own. But the bigger problem is that none of the various smaller parties looks anywhere near being able to get the 20 or so seats needed to reach a majority. We’d likely end up – just like last time – with protracted coalition talks, this time involving even more small parties trying to eke out an identity in Government. It would be a mess. Unless, of course, either FF or FG decided to become the junior coalition partner under Sinn Fein – which they would not, if they had any sense.
Were either FF or FG to do so, they would condemn themselves to becoming the third party in Irish politics – at best – in perpetuity, because they would continue to take the blame for decisions in Government, while giving the other party sole leadership of the opposition.
So an election isn’t likely to solve much, right now. That’s more the blame of the voters, than anybody else. Until such time as the public settles in its own mind on which Government it wants, an election will be little more than a chance to cause a mess. Mind you, looking at the various choices, it’s very hard to blame the voters for their indecision, isn’t it?