A new poll suggests that the leader of the Conservatives, Rishi Sunak may become the first Prime Minister in British history to lose his seat in what is being projected as a “Tory wipeout” in the general election on July 4th.
The poll, undertaken by Savanta for The Telegraph also indicates that the Conservatives may slump to 53 seats, and that around three-quarters of the current Cabinet may be voted out.
The super majority forecast for Labour in other polls is also reflected in this survey, with Labour projected to win 516 seats, which would give the party a lead of some 382 seats.
The Savanta poll shows that the Liberal Democrats may come in just behind the Tories on 50 MPs, while the SNP is projected to crash down to 8 MPs from 48 won in 2019.
However, an analysis of the poll by the Telegraph found that “more than 100 seats are predicted to be won by such narrow margins that the pollster believes they remain up for grabs. A small improvement in the Tory vote share could have a marked impact on their seat total.”
The Conservatives have fallen out of favour as frustrated voters have struggled with a cost of living crisis, housing scarcity, immigration and healthcare concerns and what they see as inequality in British society.
However, the poll – which was carried out between June 7 and June 18, and consulted 18,000 people – may not have fully captured the rise in support for Reform after Nigel Farage took over as leader.
Britain’s first past the post system means that the Savanta poll suggests Reform would not win any seats, though the Telegraph says “given the rapid recent changes in the party’s profile, an extra element of doubt could apply to it”.
Mr Farage only became Reform leader a few days before this polling began, with an uptick in its vote being seen throughout the last fortnight. His impact on the seat of Clacton, where he is standing, is also hard to predict with nationwide polling.
Reform’s polling increase means only recently has Savanta started putting it among the list of political parties offered up front as an option to respondents, rather than only after the select “other”.
A recent YouGov poll found that Reform was pulling ahead of the Tories – and were in the running for seven seats.