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Neutral countries were an integral part of the concert of Europe – the geopolitical dynamic which safeguarded peace on the European continent from the end of the Napoleonic era until the First World War. As war returned to the European continent, it became clear that neutrality in and of itself could not guarantee peace. This trend repeated itself more recently with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, forcing neutrality to fall even more out of vogue with the ascension of Sweden and Finland into NATO. The lesson to neutral states from the last century is that if you wish to remain neutral, you must secure that neutrality yourself and you will have to do so alone.
The recent historical experiences of neutral European countries are often overlooked in the debate around Irish neutrality. Of the remaining neutral European countries, Ireland is unique. Where others invest heavily in defence spending, we lag significantly behind. We are passionate about neutrality but indifferent to defence. For decades, we have benefitted from our geographic position in world – something that has cushioned our lackadaisical approach to Defence from consequence. However, as the unipolar world order appears to be coming apart, political inertia on the issue leaves Ireland exposed in a way other neutral countries are not.
To Ireland’s north, the Arctic Ocean is becoming an area of growing geopolitical interest as diminishing sea ice opens new opportunities for the great powers. With the clearing waters, the race to establish sea lanes and secure natural resources is pitting Western states against Russia and China in a bid for regional dominance. As early as 2014, China began outlining its ambitions to become a polar power, aiming to be a “Polar Great Power” by 2035. The country has already started describing itself as a “near-Arctic” state.
Russia’s increasing isolation following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine has further strengthened Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic – a development China appears to be leveraging to advance its vision of a “Polar Silk Road,” despite Western sanctions on the Russian companies they cooperate with. Russia has also heavily increased its presence in the area militarily – through naval modernisation, the opening of numerous arctic bases and investment in hypersonic missiles, a development that has raised concerns among NATO allies – who have responded by boosting their own capabilities in the region. President Trump’s recent suggestion of purchasing Greenland from Denmark likely reflects a growing Western focus on Arctic security. While Russia has been particularly attentive regarding developments to Ireland’s north, Western interests in the area also seem to be expanding.
While these developments will continue to strip away at Ireland’s geographical insulation from world conflict, the futility of Ireland’s reliance on this for security is only compounded by the presence of the important infrastructure that surrounds the island. The internet cables off our west coast in particular are a potential target for actors wishing to disrupt international trade, commerce, and communications – notably between Europe and North America. Concerns were raised about Ireland’s capacity to protect these cables in 2022, when local Irish fishermen prevented the Russian navy from carrying out exercises in Irish waters. While the humour of the situation is not lost on me, it betrays a darker reality, given that the butt of the joke is the inability of the Irish Government to prevent the Russians from carrying out these same exercises in Irish waters.
This is even more concerning given that recent years have seen Ireland become increasingly isolated on the international stage. The recent diplomatic spat with Israel comes against the backdrop of growing concern in Washington over perceived Irish defence freeloading. The Irish Government has not only failed, however, to ingratiate themselves with the incoming American administration but has actively agitated against it – from Taoiseach Simon Harris calling Trump a “ghoul” to posting pictures of Kamala Harris’ campaign merchandise on his social media. While Harris has promised a “diplomatic offensive” to win over the new American administration, this seems predicated on an almost mystical belief in the long touted Irish lobby in America – the existence of which is somewhat questionable.
The Irish state’s response to a looming to a Trump administration that appears set to take a more isolationist approach to European defence has been piecemeal. Our investment in defence continues to lag significantly behind our European neighbours and comparable neutral countries– ultimately the Irish Government has left the state unprepared for the potential fallout from the changes in dynamics with Washington.
Different European neutral countries have taken different approaches to these developments, from countries like Austria engaging with both sides, to Switzerland being more antagonistic towards the Russian state. However, where these countries stand in marked difference to Ireland is their capacity to defend themselves. A characteristic of most neutral countries is the presence of a vibrant domestic arms industry – something that Ireland lacks. Countries such as Switzerland employ mandatory military service and invest significantly in defence to ensure military preparedness. Ireland does not take these measures.
The Irish Government has begun increasing expenditure in the Defence forces, but this is happening at a snail’s pace. Particular attention to increasing our cyber security, air defence, and increasing the states’ drone fleet, coupled with investment and tax incentives for a domestic arms industry would help increase the states’ military preparedness but the political will isn’t there. The minimal attention afforded to the issue during the election cycle, despite recent events demonstrating the failure of relying on our geography to protect us, stands as a testament to the lack seriousness afforded to the issue domestically.
I suspect that many are falling back on the hope that Ireland, being a small nation, will be overlooked by larger powers as the geopolitical landscape shifts. But this seems to be taking a seriously risky bet – especially considering recent scandals involving Russian spies operating in Ireland and allegations of the presence of Chinese spies in the country. To add to the reasons for concern, Russian ships have operated in Irish seas against the wishes of the Irish Government and Russian TV has simulated nuclear strikes against Ireland. Following the recent Cobalt scandal, there was no shortage of jokes made by both our political and media class about the situation, again demonstrating a complete disinterest in taking state security seriously.
Ireland is well embedded in the Western bloc, but this bloc is rapidly drifting away from the rest of the world. The Irish Government have been enthusiastic critics of those outside the bloc, but the state’s moral grandstanding on internal issues has also neutralised good will for Ireland within the bloc. This leaves Ireland isolated in an increasingly volatile world – a fact that only compounds our failure to take defence seriously. It would take a mammoth effort of political will to rectify the problems in Irish defence but continuing to take this path passively only increases the urgency for ambitious action.
There are many benefits to Ireland’s neutrality. For Irish citizens, it has given us one of the strongest passports in the world. It has allowed Ireland to be a strong moral authority on the world stage. But there is a price to this neutrality. If we want to keep our neutrality, we must be able to defend it. And we must be able to defend it alone – this means being armed.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Dean Céitinn
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