Donald Trump is nothing if not sporting: This weekend, with all the political focus in the United States (and indeed the wider western world) focused on the stunning revelations that Joe Biden’s own justice department considers him “a well meaning old man with a poor memory” and revealed that Biden “could not remember the date of his own son’s death”, the unsportsmanlike play by Donald Trump might have been to stay relatively quiet and let voters reflect on the unfitness of Joe Biden.
Trump, though, apparently wants a fair fight, and accordingly decided to take some of the attention off Biden by appearing to state that he’d openly invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to attack NATO countries if Trump felt that said countries were not paying their way. The Biden campaign happily jumped at the chance to divert attention away from their own guy’s alleged senility:
Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies: I said I would not protect our NATO allies. In fact, I would encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want pic.twitter.com/ak1a3Mtwzq
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) February 10, 2024
To be fair to Trump, the predictable avalanche of media headlines is not fair to him, on this occasion. If you listen to him, he’s not saying that he would not honour the NATO alliance. What he is saying is the fairly well-made point that a country that does not pay its fair share of NATO defence expenditure is itself dishonouring that alliance, and has therefore forfeited any right to call on it for aid. It’s just old-fashioned “American taxpayers shouldn’t be subsidising European defence” rhetoric, and it’s very hard to argue with it when expressed properly. Regular readers will know that Trump’s inability to express ideas properly is a common bugbear of mine.
That said, an idea expressed poorly does not mean that said idea is automatically bad. In Trump’s defence, one of the hallmarks of his first term in office was surprisingly effective foreign policy. He can take credit for increasing NATO readiness overall by compelling member states to up their contributions – which is an irony since a vocal section of his supporters are so vehemently anti-NATO. In fact, the considerable NATO support for Ukraine would arguably have been lesser than it is were it not for the Trump-induced increases in defense spending across the bloc in the years leading up to the war.
For NATO, though, there is still much more to do: Many members are still failing to meet the 2% of their budget spending commitment that they collectively made in 2014. Trump’s message in that context is a simple one: Pay up, or Uncle Sam won’t be there when you need him.
The prospect of a second Trump Presidency is now very real: At this stage, months and months from the election, looking at the head to head figures between Trump and Biden is a fool’s game. Those will become relevant closer to the election. What’s very relevant now are the figures about underlying voter attitude to both men. And here, on the issues, Trump’s advantage is considerable, and growing:
NBC News Poll: Trust to do a Better job…
Border Security
Trump 57% (+35)
Biden 22%
.
The Economy
Trump 55% (+22)
Biden 33%
.
Dealing with crime and violence
Trump 50% (+21)
Biden 29%
.
Being competent and effective
Trump 48% (+16)
Biden 32%
.
Improving America's standing in… https://t.co/ZHgulq5t7g pic.twitter.com/1BA25lo9A4— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 4, 2024
According to the polls, the top two issues for Americans are the economy and defending the US borders against illegal immigration. On both issues, a clear majority of Americans prefer Trump to Biden. That gives Trump an inherent structural advantage as undecided voters come off the fence later in the year: If you (like most Americans) don’t like either man, then the chances are you’ll pick the one who you trust more on the issues that matter to you.
Further, Biden has another problem: Conceivably, he might well be able to turn around perceptions on immigration or the economy, but it is almost impossible to imagine him turning around perceptions of his own age and ability to do the job. 82 year old men do not, generally, improve their mental acuity with age, or reverse an apparent and obvious mental decline. Put another way: If you think he’s too old and unfit for the job in February, you’re not going to think him younger and sharper of mind in nine month’s time. Biden’s one shot at turning around public perception of mental fitness is by beating Trump solidly across their three scheduled debates. If he’s lost a step, though, those debates could be the end of him.
Finally, there’s a lot of talk that Biden might be replaced. The problem is that Democrats are in a prisoner’s dilemma: They essentially cannot force him to stand down. If they try, and he refuses, then they weaken their own President for November by in essence expressing a lack of confidence in him – a challenger on his own side saying that he is mentally unfit would be devastating.
So in public, they must defend Biden, in case he does run. And in private, there’s nothing they can do to get him off the ticket if he really is determined to stay on it. Add to that the other problem, which is that Biden’s one big advantage over Trump is money.
A new candidate would not have that advantage, because Biden’s accumulated hundreds of millions couldn’t be spent on somebody else’s campaign. Finally, there’s the matter of legitimacy: Any new Presidential candidate would not have been endorsed in a primary campaign, or fully vetted, which carries risks, and might make voters look sceptically at the replacement.
Trump’s prospects for round two have never been stronger. They’d be stronger again if he understood, for once in his life, when to stay quiet and let his enemies make their mistakes in peace.