Neither the Guards or the Department of Justice have been able to provide Gript with any evidence to back their often repeated claim that the sizable increase in the number of sexual offences reported to police over the last decade does not reflect an increase in the number of sexual offences committed.
For years both organisations, and numerous politicians, have taken the line that increases in the number of reported sexual offences reflect “growing trust” in the system by victims rather than an actual increase in the number of sexual offences being committed.
Since 2011 the number of reported sexual assaults has increased by 75%, and the number of rapes reported has doubled. Whilst Ireland’s population has grown over that period Census data indicates that the increase in reports of sexual offences far outpaces the growth of the population.
Remarkable, it appears that neither the Guards, the Department of Justice, nor any of the continuous line of FG ministers who have held the position of Minister for Justice since 2011, have conducted research to attempt to determine the cause of this increase. In late 2017 the Government did establish a Scoping Group on Sexual Violence, and that group did recommend research be carried out, but that research has yet to be produced.
The Department told Gript that “Tackling domestic, sexual gender-based violence and supporting victims is a key priority of Minister McEntee and the Government as a whole” and that two surveys into the prevalence of domestic and sexual violence in Ireland have been commissioned. The first of those surveys is expected to be published in 2023, with the second to be published in 2028. The last major study of sexual violence in Ireland, the SAVI Report, was published in 2002, roughly 20 years ago. And that report was commissioned by the Dublin Rape Crisis Centre, not the State.
The Department told Gript that “Creating a victim-centred justice system that supports and empowers victims of domestic, sexual and gender-based violence to come forward and report the crime has been a key priority for Minister McEntee since she took office,” and that“the Minister hopes that the fact that more victims are coming forward to report what happened to them is indicative of a growing trust amongst victims that they will be supported and they will be protected when they report their experience.”
When directly asked what evidence the Department and/or the Minister currently held which backs their claim that increases in reporting do not indicate an increase in the number of sexual offences committed we were told that “it is widely accepted that, historically, people have not come forward and so the historical recorded statistics do not paint the full picture of sexual violence in this country. The fact that more victims are coming forward to report what happened to them is, in part, indicative of a growing trust amongst victims that they will be supported.” A final email, noting that the Department had yet to reference any actual evidence, and repeating the request for such evidence, was not responded to.
When Gript asked the Guards what evidence supported those claims, they directed us to the Commissioner’s Monthly Reports to the Policing Authority. A review of those reports shows that every report published since January 2020 has contained a note saying that increases in the number of reported sexual offences may be due to victims becoming more likely to come forward, and a second note saying that it cannot be concluded that the nearly continuous rise in reported sexual offences over the last decade is due “to an increased level of incidents occurring.” Some of the reports also say that an improvement in “data quality and recording” may be a partial cause of the increase.
Whilst none of the reports attempt to give any evidence that the increases are merely a product of increased trust or improvements in data collection, reports published between November 2020 and June 2021 note that “The Eurostat dataset indicates that there is Europe-wide increase in the reporting of sexual crimes.” A review of the Eurostat data available shows that, whilst certain countries have seen substantial increases in the number of sexual offences recorded by police, the trend is not universal and a half-dozen European countries have seen the per capita number of sexual offences reported to police fall since 2011. It’s unclear why the reference was dropped after June 2021.
Interestingly the reports published between July 2019 and June 2020 state that “given that crimes against the person are also on an upward trend, it cannot be precluded that there has been an increase in the number of sexual crimes occurring.” This line is missing from later reports, having been replaced with a note saying that the increase in crimes against the person may itself be merely a result of improvements in data collection and recording.
The Guards refused to answer any of the questions we put to them about what evidence backed the comments made in these reports. We informed the Guards that it was our view that the refusal to comment indicated that the Guards did not actually possess any relevant evidence, despite the fact the claim has been repeatedly put forward by high-ranking members of the force, and asked that they comment on that view or issue a denial of its accuracy if it was incorrect. We have yet to receive any denial from the Guards, or any indication that their explanations for the rise in the number of sexual offences recorded are backed by evidence of any form.
It is entirely possible that both the Department and the Guards are correct in their statements, and that the increases in the number of sexual offences reported are a welcome development as it shows an increased level of faith in the criminal justice system, but it is striking that the Guards, the Department of Justice, and various Ministers for Justice, appear so willing to accept this explanation without any evidence that it is actually correct. If these organisations are wrong, and they have been effectively ignoring a substantial increase in the levels of sexual crime committed within the state, they will have spent years congratulating themselves for their ‘good work in building trust’ whilst men, women, and children suffered.