There are, at present, two election campaigns going on in Ireland, rather than one. And no, by that I don’t mean that there are local and European elections going on – I mean that there is an election being held amongst middle class, reasonably well-off voters, and an election being held amongst working class and rural voters. Fine Gael is winning the first of these elections. Sinn Fein is losing the second.
The two most recent opinion polls – MRBI for the Irish Times and Red C for the Sunday Business Post – show the same basic pattern: Sinn Fein support falling sharply, and Fine Gael support increasing moderately. To some people, that will not make sense: How many people do you know, they ask, who are switching their votes from Sinn Fein to Fine Gael?
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The first and most important question anybody should consider when assessing whether to vote for any particular candidate is ‘Do they love their country?’
Assuming that any sane person would not vote for anybody for whom the answer to this question would be ‘NO’ , that just leaves Nationalist party candidates and Nationalist minded independents to vote for.
These elections are a no brainier really .
Given that the government parties are tripping over themselves to accommodate every Vladimir Abdullah and Lethabo, in fact everyone beside Patrick and Patricia, there is no reason whatever to vote for them.
“… the anti-immigration vote is likely to fracture hopelessly amongst the 8 or more candidates explicitly chasing it in each of the European constituencies. This is terrible news for parties like Ireland First and the Irish Freedom Party who, given a clear run at a protest vote by themselves, might well have challenged for seats.”
This problem will largely resolve itself, so long as people vote for anti-immigration candidates all the way down the ballot. If this is done, as the lower candidates are eliminated their vote will be picked up by other anti-immigration candidates. The process will repeat until one candidate is left with the sizeable anti-immigration vote. This remaining candidate, with the help of these transfers, will probably move above candidates from Aontu and Independents for Ireland, who are milquetoast on migration. They will then pick up more transfers from Aontu/Ind for Ireland which should be enough for election.
This will work, as long as people vote anti-migration down the ballot. If there are eight anti-migration candidates then vote for them all, in whatever your preference is. If you only vote for one, then the fractured vote will never coalesce around one candidate by way of transfers.
tldr: VOTE ANTI-MIGRATION CANDIDATES ALL THE WAY DOWN THE BALLOT
Yes, vote for your favourite one or the one you think is most likely to win,
And do this for all the migration-realist candidates.
Give eacu one a preference
I gave the Dublin ones above, people need to not be lazy and do this for all their own constituencies. Check the party websites and the news articles that list them. Takes five to ten minutes.
Then share on social media whatsapp groups famil6 etc. Coz some people inevitably are too lazy and need the extra prompt.
Great advice!
That’s my take as well. Vote no 1 for the least likely nationalist. No 2 for the next least likely. The guy most likely to win should be your no 4 or 5. He will get your vote anyway as the guys and gals with little chance are eliminated. don’t give any preference to anyone other than nationals candidates even if you are married to one. What happens in the polling booth is known only on to god.
In a time of significant political upheaval I am not sure we can have any meas in these polls. I would actually think that an analysis of polls and their comparison with actual election results over the recent past would indicate that they are completely useless in predicting any electoral outcome.
This country will burn before things get any better.
Do not despair my friend. Work against the interest of the state whenever you can. Give them no money that you can avoid paying. Be awkward and truculent with the RIC. They are already called those who disagree with them terrorists so start acting the part.
The political elites in this country do not have the interests of the people at heart. In fact it is beginning to look like they hate Ireland and the Irish people. Please use your votes wisely.
Someone earlier complained about lack of candidates from parties addressing migration issues where they lived in Dublin. Theyre mostly bad with posters and leaflets, so email the parties to make sure in case there’s a candidate you were unaware of
This is what I cd find if helps
DUBLIN
******* LOCAL ELECTIONS (in no particular order)
• INDEPENDENT IRELAND
Linda de Courcy, CLONDALKIN LEA
(“Linda has major concerns about the Immigration crisis, the current government policies and the negative impact of immigration on communities all over Ireland.”)
Phil Sutcliffe – DRIMNAGH/BALLYFERMOT LEA & KIMMAGE/RATHMINES LEA
• IRELAND FIRST PARTY
Philip Dwyer – (running in locals and euros) –
TALLAGHT – Tallaght Central
Tallaght-Avonbeg, Tallaght-Belgard, Tallaght-Glenview, Tallaght-Kingswood, Tallaght-Millbrook, Tallaght-Oldbawn, Tallaght-Springfield, Tallaght-Tymon;
+ those parts of the electoral divisions of
CLONDALKIN-BALLYMOUNT
and Tallaght-Kilnamanagh not contained in the local electoral area of Rathfarnham-Templeogue; and that part of the electoral division of Tallaght-Kiltipper to the east of a line drawn along Kiltipper Way
• IRISH FREEDOM PARTY
Paul Fitzsimons – Ongar
John Oakes -Balbriggan
Barry Ward – Ballyfermot-Drimnagh
Glen Moore – Palmerstown-Fonthill LEA
• THE IRISH PEOPLE party
Mark Joseph Parsons Dublin City Council – CABRA–GLASNEVIN
Peadar MacMillan DUBLIN City Council – DONAGHMEDE
Ed Shanahan DUBLIN City Council – KIMMAGE-RATHMINES
Conor Rafferty DUBLIN City Council – PEMBROKE
Jeanette Birch DUBLIN City Council -SOUTH EAST INNER CITY
Jina Ahearne DUBLIN City Council – SOUTH WEST INNER CITY
Conor Rafferty Dún Laoghaire–Rathdown County Council – DUNDRUM
Andy Heasmann Fingal County Council – BLANCHARDSTOWN-MULHUD.
• THE NATIONAL PARTY
Jean Murray – Ratoath, Ashbourne, Cabra-Glasnevin
Yan Mac Oireachtaigh – Firhouse-Bohernabreena, Tallaght Central, Tallaght South, Rathfarnham-Templeogue
Stephen Redmond – Finglas-Ballymun
Patrick Quinlan – Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart
• FARMERS ALLIANCE – had been running a candidate in Lucan but info now disappeared
****** EUROPEAN ELECTION (in no particular order)
Four seats so use at least four votes,
Andy Heasman (The Irish People)
Philip Dwyer (Ireland First)
Niall Boylan (Independent Ireland)
Diarmaid Ó Conaráin (Irish Freedom Party)
Malachy Steenson (Independent)
Patrick Quinlan (The National Party)
Rebecca Barrett (The National Party)
I don’t know enough/anything about the following independents, so judge for yourselves
Stephen O’Rourke (he’s interviewed here on gript)
/ Eamonn Murphy( “pro-life, pro-woman candidate”). /
If I’ve missed any important info or people add it in a reply.
And maybe people can do the same for their own/other constituencies
“use at least four votes”
Better still, give all of the candidates a preference. A transfers to one could stop a ffgsf from getting in even if your preferred cand. misses out.
Same for locals. They’ll be voting on seanad so more that get in the better
I live I. Pembroke ward. The only nationalist is Connor Rafferty. Even if he does well the other seats will by default go to traitors from the other parties. We need more organisation before the general election.
I think that John may be wrong in his assessment. My guess is that a lot of the don’t knows are shy nationalists. Also a large turn out in working class and rural areas will dilute the big party percentages. Your country needs you so set out and vote on Friday week
The “Soldiers of Destitution”’s new slogan is: “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your local Fianna Fáil cumann”. That other Civil War
Party – Feeble Stable – will, unfortunately, fare somewhat better – they should be reminded that, one time, the Soldiers of Destitution hoovered up votes all around them – seismic events may occur in the next 5 to 10 years that render, too, Feeble Stable a party on 15% of first preferences on a good day !
Before voting please please remember what the parties in power have done over the last 5 +++ years not the last 5 days. They are now saying what they think you want to hear in the belief we are not intelligent enough to see through them trying to be seen as the good guys working for us , the people. An example is Irelands national debt, it was crazy 5 years ago but now it is off the radar and growing at a crazy rate daily but they still squander billions regardless
The people we vote for and send to Europe need to have the interests of all of us and our country as a priority. Avoiding voting for mainstream parties – this is great feedback to the government and we thankfully have a lot of new and highly competent independents to choose from to represent us. However, beware of some of the current independents like Wallice and Ming who make lots of noise but have achieved nothing for this country. This European vote is critical so choose wisely to save our country.
The local election vote is also critical as putting mainstream party candidates back in power makes the ruling party a lot stronger. This vote is also very important so again do your research and choose wisely.
Time to give party politics the boot and vote Independents of your choice only. Neamhspleach Amhain.
Unfortunately the powers that be will not be happy until they have handed Ireland over lock stock and barrel, eventually we could end up a minority in our own country
I view this election as serving to wean out unviable nationalist candidates.
So I don’t regret the number of candidates, even tho the truth is that there are many LEAs where there is no nationalist choice on offer.
Judging by what I read of their comments on line, many nationalist candidates and supporters have not been participating in elections hitherto, so it’s a learning experience.
poll position
NO.
pole position.
It’s a phrase from car racing, so it’s surprising McGuirk misspells it.
No poles in a car race, so I suspect it originated in horse racing.
If what I call the grounded independent/small party candidates (shared views on immigration, HC Bill, gender madness, etc.) had met and agreed to put their weight behind one candidate in each euro constituency (say, Michael McNamara and Niall Boylan in two), they would be strongly fancied. As it is, I fear that the excessive number of grounded candidates will deprive MMcN and NB of enough first pretence votes to be in the winning positions at the end of the first count. The Irish electoral system is, in practice, a first-past-the-post system, i.e., the candidates in the first four positions in Dublin at the end of the first count will almost certainly be elected unless those in fifth, sixth and seventh are close behind them. The tallymen will know what is a “closable gap” between fourth and fifth in Dublin (and fifth and sixth in the other euro constituencies) and what is not. If no grounded candidates are elected because there were too many grounded candidates, the HC Bill will be enacted. We might pay a heavy price for what I would describe as political self-indulgence.
After t lies that was fed to us on t yeses side in March ref. I for 1 will not be Voting for any candidates of party’s that pushed for yesyes. As far as I’m concerned you support Individuals in government feeding t public lies. And t fact they r still in their position says it all. U do not represent t electorate by keeping silent. You r guilty by association & I do not trust u or ur party.