There are, at present, two election campaigns going on in Ireland, rather than one. And no, by that I don’t mean that there are local and European elections going on – I mean that there is an election being held amongst middle class, reasonably well-off voters, and an election being held amongst working class and rural voters. Fine Gael is winning the first of these elections. Sinn Fein is losing the second.
The two most recent opinion polls – MRBI for the Irish Times and Red C for the Sunday Business Post – show the same basic pattern: Sinn Fein support falling sharply, and Fine Gael support increasing moderately. To some people, that will not make sense: How many people do you know, they ask, who are switching their votes from Sinn Fein to Fine Gael?
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