As things stand in late August of 2024, the Irish Government holds most of the political cards ahead of the coming general election. The economy, overall, is in pretty good health which the Government will be able to remind people of with a giveaway budget in six weeks or so. The opposition is fractured, and the main party of opposition is in the midst of a badly timed psychological breakdown over the fact that many of its former supporters have fallen out of love with Shinnermania. The media, by and large, is content with the Government and likes both Simon Harris and Micheál Martin, while retaining an instinctive sympathy for the “plucky” little Greens. What’s more, the Government will decide when the election is held, and on what terms.
There is, however, one problem: That the two largest parties of Government remain each other’s biggest rivals in large parts of the country. In many constituencies (Cavan Monaghan, for example, Tipperary South, Mayo) there is likely to be a ding-dong battle for the final seat between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. The party that wins the majority of those battles may achieve an existential victory, and the loser may be subject to an existential defeat.
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