They say Christmas comes earlier every year. And they are, of course, wrong: For most of my adult life, the great corporate push to sell Christmas panic to the masses comes reliably the day after the great corporate push to sell Halloween to the masses ends. It can never really come earlier, otherwise the shops would miss out on sales of witch costumes and pumpkins.
What does seem to come earlier every year, however, is the great Irish political freakout about what the Taoiseach should say to the American President on his Saint Patrick’s Day trip to the White House. This year, it has begun in earnest before January is out.
Last week, Christina Finn over at the Journal reported that she had asked every sitting TD for their view on whether Mr. Martin should even make the trip to the White House, given Mr. Trump’s ongoing fit of alleged badness. Christina is a fine political reporter, so I can only assume this assignment was handed down from above. Naturally, most TDs ignored the request for comment, but the pattern of those who did respond was so predictable as to not be news at all: Government TDs said yes, and left-wing opposition TDs on the prowl for votes from the perma-angsty youth said he should not. A position, by the way, they would reverse overnight should there ever be a “left government”. Taoiseach Mary Lou would not turn down the chance to earwig an American President about a border poll.
Last year, of course, the Taoiseach was not even invited on St. Patrick’s Day – that honour went to then Presidential Candidate, now newly married and reborn Christian, Conor McGregor. The Taoiseach was slotted into Mr. Trump’s diary nearly a full week before the big day, in what everyone other than the Irish media could deduce was a calculated snub by the White House to a Government that has doled out its fair share of calculated snubs to Mr. Trump in return.
But of course, there is no debate to be had about this: If you are invited to the White House, regardless of what date it is, you go. Whether you are the Taoiseach, or Conor McGregor. You go, by the way, not because of what you might gain – in truth you gain very little from a 15 minute audience with Donald Trump, other than perhaps updates on his golf game. No, you go because of what you might lose by not going.
This is basic game theory: It is about balancing your risk and reward levels based off other’s choices. Mr. Martin has four potential outcomes: First, that he goes and Donald Trump is really nice to him and delighted to have him there. That is the optimal outcome for the country in terms of its relationship with the USA and its present government.
Second, he goes and Mr. Trump decides to be in some way rude: Perhaps he forgets the Taoiseach’s name, or makes some comments about Ireland that the Government find to be undiplomatic. In that case, you smile and nod and take it and say you appreciate the President’s concerns. It’s not great but President Zelenskyy suffered through worse and he is still getting great big buckets of US military aid.
Third, he does not go, and Mr. Trump is fine with that or barely notices. The trouble there is that once you render a custom obsolete, you might have trouble restoring it again. If the invitation is not customary, it might be hard to get future Presidents to bother restoring it, even if they are Democrats.
And fourth, he does not go and Mr. Trump takes the hump in a major way. We’ve just seen in recent weeks that trade deals mean little to Mr. Trump when he takes the hump, and the Irish pharmaceutical sector remains a ripe target for Tariffs should the US President decide to send some angry Truth Social posts in the middle of the night, as is his way.
Note I am making no value judgments here. All of these choices remain true regardless of whether you approve or disapprove of either man. The most logical choice for the Irish Taoiseach is to go. Which is why he will do just that, even if Mr. Trump goes completely bananas between now and then.
No, the real embarrassment in Ireland is the way that this visit – a 15 minute hello with a handshake and a photo – is hyped up every year into a national psychodrama. Ireland – the country in whose interests the Government is elected to act – has absolutely nothing to gain from insulting the US President, whomever the holder of that office might be at any given time. A decision to do so by any Irish politician would be a direct act against the national interest.
Indeed, it is telling that those who would keep the Taoiseach at home do not even bother to couch it in terms of national interest: It’s about other interests for them – Gaza, or Iran, or Greenland, or Minnesotan illegal immigrants. None of whom, incidentally, would prosper much at all from Mr. Martin declining a meeting.
Everyone knows this – even those demanding that Mr. Martin stay at home. This, much like Christmas ads in early November, is just an annual nonsense we have to sit through.