A systematic review and meta-analysis by scientists from Johns Hopkins University and Lund University has concluded that the COVID-19 lockdowns were “a global policy failure of gigantic proportions”, finding that “draconian” policies “failed to significantly reduce deaths while imposing substantial social, cultural, and economic costs.”
The researchers examined almost 20,000 studies on the restrictions that had been taken across the world during the Covid crisis – and their meta-analysis found that “lockdowns in the spring of 2020 had a negligible effect on COVID-19 mortality”.
“Voluntary changes in behaviour, such as social distancing, played a significant role in mitigating the pandemic – but harsher restrictions, like stay-at-home rules and school closures, generated very high costs but produced only negligible health benefits,” the scientists found.
Their meta-analysis found that lockdowns reduced mortality by 3.2 per cent when compared to less strict lockdown policies adopted by the countries such as Sweden.
Covid lockdowns were not subject to cost-benefit analyses in Ireland or in most other countries. When Aontú TD, Peadar Tóibín asked that such analysis be carried out, he was told to “get real” by then Taoiseach, Micheál Martin.
In 2020, epidemiologist Professor Sam McConkey predicted there could be between 80,000 and 120,000 deaths in Ireland from Covid-19. Less than 10% of that lower estimate were eventually recorded.
In Britain, a modelling from Prof Neil Ferguson predicted there could be more than 500,000 deaths in the UK unless action to stop the spread of the virus was taken.
Now, this new study says that the severe lockdowns implemented as a result of such predictions and models had only legible effects.
“This means lockdowns prevented 1,700 deaths in England and Wales, 6,000 deaths across Europe, and 4,000 deaths in the United States,” the researchers said.
“Lockdowns prevented relatively few deaths compared to a typical flu season,” they observed, noting that in Europe 72,000 flu deaths occur in a typical flu season.
The research, entitled “Did lockdowns work? The verdict on Covid restrictions”, was co-authored by Dr Lars Jojung, Jonas Herby, and Professor Steve Hanke. Hanke is Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University.
They defined lockdowns as “the imposition of at least one compulsory, non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI).”
“We employ a systematic search and screening procedure in which 19,646 studies are identified that could potentially address the purpose of our study,” they said. “They are separated into three groups: lockdown stringency index studies, shelter-in-place-order (SIPO) studies, and specific NPI studies.”
“Stringency index studies find that the average lockdown in Europe and the United States in the spring of 2020 only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 3.2 per cent. This translates into approximately 6,000 avoided deaths in Europe and 4,000 in the United States,” they wrote.
Amongst the social costs of the lockdown are the negative outcomes for school children. A previous global analysis found that the Covid response had led to children missing about a third of the knowledge and skills they would develop during a typical school year – while Irish studies have indicated that disrupted learning was likely to have long-term consequences for children, especially for those from vulnerable backgrounds.
Public debt also rose sharply in many countries enforcing lockdowns, including Ireland which added €33 billion to the country’s indebtedness in the period.
Significant numbers of excess deaths recorded even as the Covid virus receded was believed by many commentators to be driven by a lack of access to healthcare during the Covid restrictions.
This new research, published in the peer-reviewed journal, Economic Affairs observes that: “A growing body of research argues that lockdowns have had devastating and far-reaching effects in many fields of society and through many channels.”
Researchers note that lockdowns: “severely reduced economic activity, raised unemployment, resulted in many enterprise bankruptcies, and increased government debt significantly. And they have contributed to raising inequality in a number of ways.
“In addition to their immediate economic impact, lockdowns have reduced the time spent by children in school, decreasing the extent of education, and therefore reduced investment in human capital, increased mental disorders and domestic violence, and caused significant quality-of-life losses,” tehy said.
“Lockdowns have also reduced personal freedom, caused political unrest, strengthened authoritarian tendencies, increased government corruption, and undermined liberal democracy,” they claimed.
OTHER LOCKDOWN COSTS
The study noted that lockdowns led to “lost medical preventions and procedures” and “increased deaths due to despair and inability to receive medical attention”.
“From April 2020 through at least the end of 2021, Americans died from non-Covid causes at an average annual rate of 97,000 in excess of previous trends,” they said.
“Hypertension and heart disease deaths combined were elevated 32,000. Diabetes or obesity, drug-induced causes, and alcohol-induced causes were each elevated 12,000 to 15,000 above previous (upward) trends.”
“Drug deaths especially followed an alarming trend, only to significantly exceed it during the pandemic to reach 108,000 for calendar year 2021. Homicide and motor-vehicle fatalities combined were elevated almost 10,000. Various other causes combined to add 18,000,” they reported.
“Although many of these excess deaths were a consequence of personal choices, it is likely that SIPOs, school closures, etc. made it difficult for people to handle the pandemic.”
Last year, then Taoiseach Micheál Martin warned that Ireland faces a “frightening” wave of delayed cancer diagnoses linked to the impact of Covid-19 on the health service.
LOSS OF QUALITY OF LIFE
The study also looked at the concept of “loss of quality of lif”.
While they said that they were aware of “only a few quality-of-life studies covering the COVID-19 pandemic”, those studies did underline the importance of looking at quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) when assessing the cost of lockdowns.
“A study of Israel by Yanovskiy and Socol (2022) attempts to estimate the loss of QALYs caused by lockdowns. They conclude for Israel that ‘it can be estimated that even if the lockdowns saved some lives, in the long term they killed 20 times more.’
ZERO COVID ARGUMENT
The research also looked at some of the arguments made in favour of lockdowns such as the example of ‘zero covid’ countries. The scientists noted that comparing COVID-19 mortality rates in Australia to mortality rates in Europe and the United States, this zero-covid strategy appears to be effective when measured by COVID-19 mortality rates.
“But the immediate effectiveness is less obvious compared to other island countries of which at least some have used more lenient COVID-19 policies,” they said, graphing the contrast between New Zealand/Australia and Iceland and other islands.
“We therefore caution against attributing the low mortality rates in New Zealand and Australia to strict lockdowns when more obvious explanations – such as being island countries – may explain the differences,” they concluded.
One of the authors of the study, Jonas Herby, a special adviser at the Centre for Political Studies (CEPOS) in Denmark, told the Telegraph: “Numerous misleading studies, driven by subjective models and overlooking significant factors like voluntary behaviour changes, heavily influenced the initial perception of lockdowns as highly effective measures.
“Our meta-analysis suggests that when researchers account for additional variables, such as voluntary behaviour, the impact of lockdowns becomes negligible.”
“It should be stressed that a great deal of confusion and misinterpretation of data arises during pandemics because, once people become aware of the dangers associated with the pandemic, they make voluntary changes in their behaviour to mitigate the chances of contracting the virus,” the research paper says.
“It is what we refer to as the ‘hot stove’ effect. Once a person recognises that a stove is hot, that person will avoid placing his or her hand on the stove. This insight is important, and one should be very careful when claiming that lockdowns did this or that, because much of what we observed during the pandemic happened because of voluntary changes that had nothing to do with government mandates.”
“Andersson (2022) concludes that the economic effects of lockdowns on growth and public finances are large and lasting,” they note.
“According to Andersson, lockdowns hit the economy very hard by forcing everybody, private individuals and firms, to change their behaviour while voluntary adjustment allows for different behaviour, more flexibility, and less uniformity in the response to the pandemic.”
COVID INQUIRY
In Ireland an inquiry into the measures undertaken in the Covid period has yet to be established, despite concerns about the negative impact on schooling, cancer diagnoses, medical assessments, domestic violence and other issues.
In Britain, controversy has arisen regarding the role a Counter-Disinformation Unit set up by the State may have played in censoring opinions which opposed government policy.
An Irish equivalent of that unit, for a time at least, might have been said to be Kinzen, a ‘tackling misinformation’ service which reported articles from the British Medical Journal, amongst others, which seemed to go against the government’s narrative on Covid.
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