Is the tide of public opinion…… finally turning?
There is strong support for reopening society and the economy as soon as possible, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll, with only a minority favouring a long lockdown until the virus has been eliminated.
The poll also shows that the zero-Covid approach is not endorsed by a large majority of respondents, who say they want things to get back to normal once the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated.
Today’s findings also show there is widespread willingness to take the vaccine with 80 per cent saying they would take it tomorrow, and just 14 per cent saying they would not. Three per cent said they had already received it.
Yes and no, is probably the only correct answer.
Yes, in that for the first time, the public has a clear preference that does not err on the side of caution. For basically the entire duration of the pandemic, public polling has consistently shown high support for restrictions, with the “silent majority” consistently outnumbering the smaller, but often louder, implacable opponents of lockdown.
And it’s notable then, that in this poll, for the first time, lockdown opponents find themselves in a position to have something to work with, in terms of public opinion. Without borrowing too heavily from the Irish Times (it’s their poll, they paid for it, read the full details on their site) it’s notable that large majorities want schools and construction back open, and favour easing restrictions as soon as the vulnerable are vaccinated.
But is this a permanent, or a temporary, shift?
Would these numbers stay the same, in other words, if the re-opening of schools (which is to begin, in small increments, from Monday) were to lead to a measurable spike in cases? The famous R-number for the virus is at about 0.9 at the moment – it would only take a small relaxation, and a spot of bad luck, for case numbers to start climbing rapidly again. Would public opinion hold in those circumstances? On past experience, probably not.
Getting the next steps right, then, is of paramount political importance to the Government. Somehow they’ve survived three consecutive waves of the virus without copping most of the political blame for the present situation. In part, that’s due to friendly and supportive media coverage from the main broadcasters and newspapers. And in part, its due to the fact that voters don’t have a lot of options at the moment – it’s this lot, or Sinn Fein, and resistance to SF is still very high in a majority of the electorate.
But the stakes, you sense, are higher this time. Past and prior attempted re-openings were consistently met with something approaching ambivalence from the electorate. They were understood, but there was no sense that there was a real hunger from the public to get back to normal.
That’s all changed, now. The change is probably most easily explained by the relative success of the UK as compared to Ireland: In laymans terms, if the Brits get to drink pints on June 21st, the average Irish person will feel very annoyed if we can’t have what they have, either on the same day, or shortly thereafter.
Which makes the vaccination programme the only thing worth focusing on, at this stage, for the Government. 80% of us, according to that poll, want the vaccine, on top of the three per cent who’ve already received it. While the poll didn’t measure the urgency of that desire, it’s likely that it will only increase in the weeks and months ahead. If you’re reading this, and you’re an anti-vaxxer, then it’s probably time to give up hope on persuading your countrymen about the vaccine: That battle is over.
Mr. Martin and his Government, then, are facing into the two or three months that will probably define their political futures: if they can, somehow, get the country opened up in good order, with a smooth and functioning vaccine programme, then most of the many cock-ups that have been made in this country over Covid will happily be forgotten by a grateful public. If not, then heaven help them.
And of course, once it’s over, and we do open up, joy will probably be short lived. For, like the man in Kansas emerging from his Tornado shelter after the twister has passed, we’ll have to survey the damage, and confront the costs of the 15-month long storm that’s battered the country.