The latest Red C Poll indicates Independent candidates may attract more support than any of the parties in the local election, and shows another drop in Sinn Féin support just two weeks ahead of voting on June 7th.
The Red C poll for the Business Post also found that “Sinn Féin is neck and neck with independent candidates in the European elections at 21 per cent with Fine Gael close behind.”
When voters were asked about the local elections, independents were the most popular on 24 per cent, followed by Sinn Féin on 21 per cent and Fine Gael on 19 per cent. Fianna Fáil is polling at 15 per cent.
Sinn Féin is neck and neck with independent candidates in the European elections at 21 per cent, with Fine Gael close behind on 20 per cent and Fianna Fáil on 14 per cent.
When asked how they would cast their votes in a general election, the findings indicated that gains in voter support for Sinn Féin over the last 4 years have now been wiped out, with the party down 4 points to 23 per cent since the last Red C poll ìn April 2024 – and down 13 points since peaking at 36 per cent in a Red C poll in June 2022.
Fine Gael is up 2 points on 22 per cent, with the Business Post reporting the state of the parties in regard to a general election as follows: “Sinn Féin at 23 per cent (down 4); Fine Gael at 22 per cent (up 2); independents at 19 per cent (no change); Fianna Fáil at 15 per cent (up 1); Social Democrats at 5 per cent (down 1); Labour at 4 per cent (up 1); Green Party at 4 per cent (up 1); People Before Profit – Solidarity Party at 3 per cent (up 1) and Aontú at 3 per cent (down 1)”.
A general election must be held in the next nine months.
Sinn Féin has lost most votes in its traditional base of working-class voters and with young people. Some commentators link that decline to the party’s stance on immigration which has emerged as a major issue in the election.
Red C said that:
Asked what issues were very important in the local elections, 68 per cent of voters chose the cost of living, health by 53 per cent, housing by 52 per cent, immigration by 41 per cent and crime by 40 per cent.
For the European elections, the cost of living was chosen by 56 per cent of voters as very important, immigration by 50 per cent, energy costs by 39 per cent, the economy by 37 per cent, and health services for 34 per cent.
Issues like climate change and sustainability were further down people’s priorities for the European elections, at just 27 per cent.
The findings come after a recent Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll which found that, when those unlikely to vote and undecided are excluded, “the state of the parties for the local elections is as follows: Fine Gael 21 per cent; Fianna Fáil 20 per cent; and Sinn Féin 18 per cent.”