Tallies indicate that Fianna Fáil are currently on track to receive their worst result ever in both the Galway West and Dublin Central by-elections.
Note that these are estimated results based on collated ballot boxes, rather than official results.
The elections were automatically triggered last year when Fine Gael Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe resigned his seat in Dublin, roughly around the same time Independent Galway TD Catherine Connolly was elected President of Ireland, leaving two vacancies in the Dáil.
Fianna Fáil ran Councillor John Stephens in Dublin, and young 25-year-old Councillor Cillian Keane in Galway. However, both appear on track to significantly underperform compared to the party’s past results in those areas, even by the standards of by-elections.
With the full tally in for Dublin Central per Ireland Votes, the Dublin Fianna Fáil’s Councillor is on 4.1%. Prior to this, the party’s worst ever result was 7.2% first preference votes in the 2024 General Election. If these tallies prove to be accurate, this will be Fianna Fáil’s worst ever result in that area by a considerable margin.
This is down from an all-time high of 46.6% in the 1983 by-election, when they topped the poll, and 12.3% in the 2009 by-election. Prior to 2009, the party consistently received anywhere from 39% to 45% of first preferences in that constituency, but has precipitously declined since then.
Notably, this was the past constituency of former party leader and ex-Taoiseach Bertie Ahern until 2011.
Meanwhile, in Galway West, with 80% of tallies in, Fianna Fáil’s Keane is on 9.2%. The previous worst result ever seen by the party was 16.8% of first preferences in 2024.
Previously, prior to 2002, Fianna Fáil used to get anywhere between 40% and 70% of the first preference votes in this area, and it was the political stomping ground of party veteran Eamon Ó Cúiv.
Notably, senior Fianna Fáil appeared to be bracing for a poor result even in the run-up to the vote.
In April, when asked about a RedC poll which found poor Government support just prior to the by-elections, Fianna Fáil Higher Education Minister James Lawless said that he thought both his party’s candidates were “very strong”, but that he didn’t have high hopes as far as electoral outcomes goes.
Minister “won’t be shocked” if Government loses by-elections
“Look, by-elections are tough,” he said.
“I think the last time a government won a by-election, certainly the last time Fianna Fáil in government won a by-election, was in the early 1980s.
“So it’s, you know, it’s not normal for governments to win by-elections. I’d be delighted if we do. I won’t be shocked if we don’t. But certainly we’re going to put our best foot forward.”