The EU’s population is projected to fall by 53 million by 2100, according to new figures released by Eurostat.
In population projections published last week, the EU’s statistical agency said the bloc’s population is expected to decline by 11.7% between 2025 and the end of the century, falling from 451.8 million to 398.8 million.
Notably, this decline would be even steeper if not for immigration buoying the figures.
The data shows that while the population is set to continue growing in the short term, it is expected to peak at 453.3 million in 2029 before entering a gradual long-term decline.
Eurostat said the projections are based on assumptions around fertility, mortality and migration trends across EU countries, with partial convergence expected between member states over time.
The data points to a significant shift in the EU’s demographic structure, with the proportion of younger and working-age people set to fall over the coming decades.
The share of children and young people aged between 0 and 19 is projected to decline from 20% in 2025 to 17% by 2100, while the proportion of working-age people between 20 and 64 is expected to drop from 58% to 50%.
At the same time, older age groups are set to make up a larger share of the population. Those aged between 65 and 79 are projected to rise slightly from 16% to 17%, while the proportion of people aged 80 and over is expected to increase from 6% to 16%.
The population pyramid for 2025 shows a demographic profile shaped by long life expectancy and low birth rates, with a large share of people in older working-age brackets and fewer younger people.
By 2100, the projections show a more pronounced shift towards an ageing population, with fewer young people and a smaller working-age cohort alongside a growing elderly population.
As reported by Euronews this week, the projected decline would be steeper in the absence of migration, with immigration expected to offset some of the overall population loss.
The report underscores the wide divergence in Europe’s demographic outlook, with population growth expected in some countries and steep declines in others.
Of the 30 European countries studied, 12 are projected to increase in population by 2100, while 18 are forecast to shrink.
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Greece are predicted to lose more than 30% of their populations, with Bulgaria, Croatia and Italy also facing significant drops.
By contrast, some smaller nations such as Luxembourg, Iceland and Malta are expected to grow strongly, thanks in large part to immigration.
Ireland is likewise projected to see its population rise, joining Sweden, Norway and Switzerland among the countries on an upward trajectory – again, largely due to inward migration.
The figures reflect broader demographic trends across Europe, including declining fertility rates, increasing life expectancy and the role of migration in shaping population outcomes over the coming decades.