Election Knife-Edge: Arizona back in play as Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada & Georgia too close to call

UPDATE 8: (19.16pm) Here is one of America’s most prominent pollsters, who didn’t quite get things right this time, explaining just how close Arizona is going to be:

UPDATE 7: (18.07pm) You may have seen allegations from conservatives that Joe Biden was suspiciously handed 130,000 votes overnight in Michigan, but it now seems almost certain this was simply a typo by Shiawassee County officials, and was corrected:


UPDATE 6: (17.57pm) Bill Stepein, Trump’s ground-game manager, seems confident that the president can take not just Arizona, but also some other key states in the days (and maybe weeks) ahead. Trump could win the election just by picking up Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Here’s a snapshot of what Stepien had to say on a conference call today with journalists:

(17.46pm) Republicans are expressing fear that a number of GOP-leaning districts in Arizona could see considerable numbers of votes invalidated after staff in certain voting centres allegedly handed out Sharpie markers to voters, which they say would cause such ballots to be invalidated. Democrats however have pointed out that Sharpies are in fact allowed.

Arizona of course is now back in play after a reporting error by Edison Research, despite Fox News calling the state for Joe Biden earlier.

UPDATE 4: (17.38pm) Most media outlets are reporting Donald Trump called for counting to stop in Pennsylvania last night, but his comments appear to have been a little less controversial (apart from declaring victory prematurely):

UPDATE 3: (16.50pm) Arizona may be back in play according to the New York Times, changing Donald Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes considerably:

UPDATE 2: (16:25pm) As Biden extends his lead in Michigan to over 32,000 votes, Trump’s former White House Communications Director seems to be certain where this is all headed:

UPDATE 1: (14.12pm) Joe Biden has taken the lead for the first time in Michigan according to the Associated Press:


Donald Trump was just over 2,000 votes ahead of Joe Biden in the key state of Michigan, whilst Biden leads the president in Wisconsin by less than 20,000. Whilst Wisconsin is almost finished counting, Michigan still has some 400,000 votes to tabulate, so expect recounts and rancour as Election Night turns into Election Week.

Elsewhere, Nevada and Georgia remain toss-ups, with Biden gaining a slight lead out west, whilst Trump retains a slender advantage in the southern state. Nevada’s final result is not expected until Friday however.

Arizona has already been called for Biden by multiple news outlets, but it is still possible, albeit very unlikely, that Donald Trump will scrape over the line there.

The incumbent won a remarkable victory in Florida, helped enormously by Cuban voters who turned against Biden in the traditional Democratic stronghold of Miami-Diade.

Whilst the pendulum has swung back and forth all night, Joe Biden’s road to 270 electoral votes certainly seems easier at this point, given the figures emerging from Wisconsin and Nevada. If Biden does win those two states and Arizona, Trump must win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia to hold the White House, except in one unlikely eventuality:

Earlier in the night, Mr Trump caused controversy when he declared himself the winner of the election and alleged election rules in Pennsylvania are being broken by accepting votes cast after polls closed, an issue he says will go to the Supreme Court.

Much of the concern for Trump supporters now centres on the effects the remaining mail-in ballots, with which Democrats have out-performed Republicans, will have in places like Georgia.


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