Predictably, it took longer than usual for a picture to begin to emerge from the count centres nationwide as ballot boxes were opened at 9am this morning.
However, as the clock approaches lunchtime, a few clear trends are emerging:
The FF/FG vote has held up very well
In Dublin, both Barry Andrews of Fianna Fail and Regina Doherty of Fine Gael look assured of seats, and the much more limited feedback from the two rural EU constituencies would suggest that their candidates are polling strongly there as well.
In the local elections, particularly outside of Dublin, FF and FG candidates are polling strongly and topping the poll in most areas.
A Green wall stands in Dublin, but crumbles in Limerick
Sitting Green Party TD Brian Leddin is contesting the Limerick Mayoral Election, and it looks very likely that he will fail to make an impact.
But in Dublin, where most of the party’s council seats are held, the Greens are performing strongly. In the Pembroke ward, Hazel Chu will be re-elected, and Green Councillor Michael Pidgeon will top the poll and exceed the quota in his south inner city ward. The Greens also believe, at this stage, that they are in sight of a shock gain of a seat in Killarney, Co. Kerry.
Sinn Fein’s vote has faltered, but not by as much as some expected
At the EU election level, Sinn Fein look assured of seats in both Midlands North West (where tallies had their candidates touching 40% in Sligo) and in Ireland South (where an FF source wryly suggested that in Waterford, Kathleen Funchion “might win nine quotas”). In Dublin, Lynn Boylan will emerge as the leading left wing candidate and looks set for a seat.
However at Council level, the situation is much worse for Sinn Fein: Tallies in Wicklow have the party on only about 8% of the vote, and a poor candidate strategy looks set to deprive it of seats across Dublin. Similarly, in Mayo reports suggest that the party is not really featuring.
Real, but limited, breakthroughs for “nationalists”
In Dublin, Malachy Steenson looks assured of a council seat in the North Inner City, having run his campaign on an anti-immigration platform. Similarly, Gavin Pepper is in with a chance in Finglas, while across the country citizen journalist Stephen Kerr is in with a real chance of taking a seat on Mayo County Council.
In the European Elections, the picture is much bleaker: Niall Boylan of Independent Ireland is in the mix for the final seat in Dublin, but nothing is assured – but other candidates like citizen journalist Philip Dwyer are barely featuring in the count.
Reports from Ireland South suggest a relatively strong showing for Derek Blighe – but nothing that might threaten a seat.
For Aontu, limited gains possible
Aontu’s strongest result of the day has come in county Cavan, where sitting councillor Sarah Reilly is set to top the poll with an astonishing 37% of the vote.
Elsewhere, the party has candidates well in the mix for seats but not assured: For example Becky Kealy in Kanturk is well in the mix for the final seat in that constituency. The party is also in the mix for several potential gains across Dublin and Leinster.
Independents in general doing very well
In several parts of the country – Waterford, Ardee, Cavan, and elsewhere the independent vote is well ahead of the party vote and touching 40% in many places. In Donegal, the 100% redress party is likely to take several seats.
However, with the large range of independents it is difficult at this stage to assign those votes to individual seats or assign significance to them at this early stage.