Just when it seemed that President Donald Trump was heading for an inevitable defeat to Joe Biden, there are signs that he may indeed be turning things around.
The polls following the Democrat convention which began on Monday evening will be interesting, as will those in the week after the Republican convention next weekend. As it stands, Biden still looks like winning, but an August 17 poll commissioned by CNN showed that Biden’s lead had slipped to 4%. Margin of error territory.
A matter of interest and comparison, of concern to the Democrats, is that a corresponding CNN/ORC poll in August 2016 had Hilary Clinton ahead of Trump by a full 9%, No one was giving him a chance and yet …
In 15 key states, Biden’s lead is just 1% so the trends would appear to favour Trump despite the chaos and panic that the mass media presents to the world in the midst of the Covid crisis, and the protests and violence that followed the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May.
Interestingly, there is a massive gap between the perception of all of this among those who favour one or other of the candidates. Democrats obviously blame or pretend to blame the President for the virus, while a huge majority of Trump voters do not even consider it to be of the scale of importance one might imagine.
While 57% of Biden supporters regard race as a main issue, only 22% of Trump voters agree. It will be interesting to see what the electoral impact of the violence, looting and murder in Democrat controlled cities will be. Will Nixon’s silent majority have the decisive say on November 3?
If that comes to pass, Trump’s pre-Covid record will have stood to him. He is almost unique as POTUS in not having begun any new wars, nor escalated American involvement in those disaster zones initiated by his predecessors of both parties.
While the Cassandras were predicting a nuclear war with North Korea, Trump put the lunatics in Pyongyang back into their red box. Likewise, Erdogan’s throwing shapes in the direction of the Kurds who had borne the fight against IS with American military aid was nipped in the bud. Walk softly and carry a big stick.
Some other random takes are the fact that poverty levels had fallen preCovid to their lowest levels since 2000. The poverty rate for black families had fallen to the lowest level since separate statistics began to be collected several decades ago.
Violent crime had fallen in every year since 2016 and prison numbers are lower now. The decline of the Democrat cities into anarchy may have reversed the first trend this year as Chicago and New York’s liberal elites appear intent on turning back to the dark days of the 1990s. Another success in tackling crime has been the First Step programme for the rehabilitation of less serious criminals.
A whole raft of improvements in the situation of lower income and small business working people have undoubtedly taken a hit with the virus, but even in the midst of all of this, underlying signs are not as bad as in other democracies.
The odds against Trump are falling, but still favour Biden. He has less than three months to save his Presidency. It is all to play for.