In the midst of sustained panic about the threat of Covid-19, with the capital back under lockdown and other counties now being considered for same, it’s worth inserting some reality into a situation that is being wildly mishandled by those in charge, and largely enabled by media commentators who seem unwilling to challenge the official approach.
The real reason we have seen a surge in cases is because there has been a surge in testing, with the number of people tested in the past week more than double the number that were tested in the last week of April, when daily deaths reached their peak.
The 21st – 27th April saw 41,470 people tested, with 415 deaths, whilst the past week of 14th – 20th September saw 86,079 people tested, with only 8 deaths in that period. Whereas that week in April saw 3,996 confirmed cases, the past week in September has seen less than half that number, 1,948, despite double the number of tests.
If April’s testing rate had been what it is now, it’s fair to assume we would have found double the number of cases, making the entire attempt to gauge the severity and seriousness of the virus on the basis of case numbers a fool’s game.
Whilst undoubtedly contagious, the thankfully low number of deaths over the summer and early autumn, allied with a significantly lower number of confirmed cases despite increased testing, indicates that the virus is indeed fizzling out, as consistently modelled by Stanford professor and Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt.
All this is to say that the current depiction of a rejuvenated virus demanding extreme measures is wildly inaccurate and amounts to gross negligence on the part of politicians supporting and re-introducing restrictions that are unnecessarily impacting many other aspects of healthcare and the economy.
Whilst 9.64% of people tested in the last week of April were found positive, only 2.26% of people tested were found positive last week, confirming the trend that the virus has been dying out for some time.
All these figures however tend to get overlooked in what has become an almost religious adherence to the pronouncements of those in authority, with little evidence that the conformity of thought we have witnessed from both the public and the media is about to change.
The pandemic has presented new opportunities for social behavioural research, the chief question of which must be why facts don’t seem to matter in the face of self-inflicted harm and hysteria.