Over 40% of the population increase in the Irish state since 2005 has been the consequence of net migration of people born overseas, and the birth of children to mothers of other than Irish nationality.
Almost one and a half million people from overseas have migrated to Ireland over that period. Around 27% of that was accounted for by people of Irish nationality or citizenship returning to Ireland. However, that has been countered by the emigration of almost the same number of Irish people over that same period.
The natural increase in the population – as measured by the difference between births and deaths – has also slowed alarmingly, particularly since the years immediately preceding the banking crisis and the end of the Celtic Tiger and the return of large scale emigration.
The number of births in the state fell from a high of 75,554 in 2009 to just 57,540 in 2022. That is a fall of 24%. During the same period emigration of largely young Irish people has topped 50,000 in all years other than the period of the Covid crisis.
Of the 59,796 births in 2019, 23% were to mothers of other than Irish nationality. If that trend has been close to being consistent over the 2005 – 2022 period, then more than 250,000 births were to non-nationals.
A major contributory factor in the falling proportion of Irish births is not just the number of immigrants, mostly of younger age cohorts, but also the emigration of several hundred thousand young Irish people in the decade or so prior to that. That is not a healthy demographic for any country or cohesive community.
The proportion of births to non-nationals is close to the 20% of the population officially known from the Census to be of other than Irish nationality, and of course the continued migration trends allied to the increasing number of children born to non-nationals will keep pushing that upwards. The current level of 23% of such births is an accurate picture of where the overall demographic is trending and that will continue on an upward and perhaps increasing curve.
With numbers of Irish people returning to live here being only moderately above the numbers of Irish people leaving an increasing part of the increase in the population now is made up of non-nationals who have immigrated to Ireland and who are giving birth in Ireland.
That is borne out by the statistics on the issues of PPS numbers, of which less than one quarter are being issued to persons of Irish nationality, and that is mostly made up of Irish born children.
With 900 more Irish people estimated to have left the state in the year to April this year than returned, and with somewhere around 45,000 of likely new births on recent trends being to mothers of Irish nationality, it can be seen that the demographic trends are inevitably going to continue in the absence of some radical shift either within Ireland or internationally.
Irish people leaving the state in the last twelve month period accounted for 30,500 of the total of 64,000. The estimated 34,000 non nationals who emigrated was more than compensated by 112,000 who came to live here; that number being mostly asylum seekers as compared to around 36,000 who were issued with a work permit in the 12 months to April 2023.
The current trends throw an interesting light on previous projections for the population and demographics of the state. The CSO forecast for 2051 was obviously made before the Covid panic and prior to the huge influx of Ukrainian and other refugees. Even so, its estimates would not only appear to be somewhat off, but even if they are accurate the current trends would allow us to make other forecasts for the demographic make up of the population of the state.
The CSO estimated that at most, the population of the state would increase by around 41.2% on the 2016 Census of 4.74 million. That would mean that the population in 2051 will be 6.7 million. Which is of course a pretty staggering figure until you take into account two things.
Firstly, the population has already increased by an average of more than 90,000 per year since the CSO forecast. Bearing in mind that the increase in the year since the Census was estimated at more than 130,000 and that there was very little migration comparable to trends during the two years of the Covid restrictions.
An annual rate of 90,000 until 2051 would see the population increase by more than 2.5 million to over 7.7 million. One million more than that predicted by the CSO. Bear in mind too that they were working on the assumption of an annual rate of net migration of 30,000 and a high fertility rate. The number of births has fallen although the falling Irish birth rate is likely to be compensated by a growing number of non-national births.
CSO and other official population projections have been proved since 2013 to be radically out of line with reality. Net migration has been higher in every year other than the Covid years – and indeed was not much less than 30,000 in 2020. Likewise the fertility rate has fallen with the number of births in the state in 2022 being almost 11,000 or one third lower than in 2016.
If we assume that immigration will continue at a rate higher than 30,000 and that over 40% of future population growth continues to be made up of non- nationals, then at least one million of the projected increase in the population by 2051 will be immigrants.
On current trends, and even with the absence of crises such as the war in Ukraine, and even if the state restricts the numbers of other refugees which on their own are beginning to approach the net migration rate forecast by the CSO, then that will mean that at least one and a half million of the projected increase in the population by 2051 will be immigrants.
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The country has been hijacked by globalists with an evil agenda. Vote against FFG labor SF SD and Greens. All of these parties fully support this. Not one of them included uncontrolled immigration in their manifestos before the last election. Remember those parties who support this madness when you get to vote and then vote against them.
You need to vote out the government parties who have implemented these policies.
If large numbers of people withdraw their votes from opposition parties and give it to tiny parties or independents then FF FG & the greens will be the beneficiaries.
Sounds like a Shinner. Unfortunatly a large % of SF voters will never vote for them again due to their failure to oppose Covid Policy & Immigration Policy.
Once they are at 51% of births, the Irish nation is over. That should be around 2040.
Only a very hot global conflict is going to get this unholy alliance between progressivism and capitalism off our backs.
I find it curious that acceptance of emmigration is so ingrained that nobody here is questioning why so many are leaving, when the demographic trend would look very different if there was enough housing and career opportunuties to make it worth staying. As things stand an outsider would think the government are actually trying to get rid of as many indigenous Irish as possible by restricting planning permission, reducing farming and taxing self-employed and small businesses out of existence.
You dudes need to organise a conference about why there is no right wing rise in Ireland despite a lot of European countries seeing that kind of success in their elections. Please don’t come to the conclusion that it’s because of Irish liberal axis of evil (government, media, NGOs). That kind of vacuity is pointless.
So what would your conclusion be? seeing as you are not going to accept our answer and don’t believe it’s because of a liberal axis of evil. Maybe it because the majority of Irish people don’t really care what happens to their country.
It would be an interesting conference thinking about issues without predetermined conclusions lacking absolutist hyperbole, collective nouns and first person plurality
There is no right or centre right party in Ireland. FF used to be centre right but they have gone left and no one trusts them. The only people that represent centre right/conservative views are Independents. I’d also like to point out to people….when voting…you do not have to fill out the ballot. You can only vote for 1 or 2 people only, you do not have to number it all the way down, that way there will be no transfers to the likes of FF FG or the Greens.
With a view to trying to create what government? The Irish constitution will not allow the country to be governed by 12 independents plus Peadar Tobin I’m afraid.
Use a oen. Scrutinise tge chain of custody and count
What net result does this article want to achieve? Its reason for being is very vague. I’m not going to give the dog whistle speciation for why it was written. However, I would advise the author to explain what they want for Ireland by writing this blog post post.
These are just the facts. If you hear a dog whistle maybe you are a dog.
Id imagine the author wants less migration into Ireland going forward & I agree
I imagine so also. It’s such a pity the article is vague and vacuous that we have to speculate.
It is not vague. Its very straightforward, At the current trend/rate of immigration, Ireland will be 40 to 50% populated by non native Irish.
It’s well written
This might shine some light on it for you, Irish people are being replaced in their own country……………these are the facts backed up by the census data, Irish citizens are killing their kids in utero which adds to the fertility rate being less than sustainable whilst those being imported en masse under the guise of “asylum” and “refugee” status have a fertility rate above sustainable levels………..its a simple equation. non organic population growth from cultures not compatible with western values has proven in many european countries (sweden etc) to be a disaster, increase violent and sexual crime, a burden to the welfare state and a break down in social cohesion. So much so that the nordic countries have declared their multicultural experiment a failure and are beginning mass deportations.
Ah The Replacement Theory: A gift to the liberal left. Anyone using it gets to be summarily dismissed, often by people in their own ranks. I think if you put it into the Gript search engine you’ll find those espousing it being regularly dismissed.
It is very much real, you fool
The story is suggesting that soon the real Irish will be a tiny minority in their own country, because of traitors. And it will no be safe for the new Irish minority.
Will I make it any clearer?
Edit the last two sentences. No idea what you’re trying to say. I can see you have been triggered but consider proofreading before posting. Maybe read out loud. Also, a clearer working definition of ‘traitor’ would be of benefit.