Last week the CSO published its latest population estimates. Without blowing my own trumpet, I have been pointing out for several years that the CSO estimates were both way off – something already proven – and that they were using migration scenarios that simply do not match what has been and is likely to be the level of inward migration.
Which means that even the 7 million population estimate for the Irish state by 2057 is on most recent evidence going to be surpassed. Most reports seized on this as the standout statistic but neglected to explain the implications of the fact that the vast bulk of that population increase will continue to be made up of inward migration. Which will mean that the non-Irish born population of the state by 2057 will be more than one third and headed towards 50%.
The key thing evident in the projections is that in ALL of the three scenarios inward migration will account for the vast bulk of any increase. Indeed, in the lowest M3 model, the population is projected to increase by 549,600 between 2023 and 2057 – but inward migration will be 565,000. Presumably the fact that the population will increase by less than the numbers coming here envisages that a certain number of immigrants will go home. The one constant is a low Irish replacement rate and the implication that more young Irish people – those of child bearing age – will be emigrating.
In the M2 model, the population is forecast to increase to 6,446,263 with 93.1% of that increase comprised of immigrants, and just 6.9% a natural increase due to the excess of births over deaths. Of course, by that stage, the bulk of children born in Ireland will be to immigrant families. That change has profoundly altered the nature of other European states, and Ireland is in the midst of a demographic revolution far more profound than any of them.
Of the forecast increase in population of 1,164,834 under the M2 model, just over one million – 1,084,460 – will be immigrants. Which would mean that the population of the state by 2057 will be 35% born overseas. In the M1 model which assumes a high level of migration of 1,821,500 and with 90.9% of that comprised of immigrants, the proportion of the population of the state born overseas will be just over 40%.
The CSO M1 model assumes that from 2023 to 2057 there will be an average of 48,698 immigrants each year. It will fall from current levels to 45,000 per year and remain at that. There is no evidence that this is likely to be the highest and most exceptional possibility.
Nor is the Ukrainian factor one that greatly affects the future. Even if the bulk of Ukrainians do return home, and there is evidence that a substantial number will not, those numbers will only account for a fraction of the inward migration envisaged in any of the scenarios. Of course if Ukraine is allowed to join the EU, then Ukrainian numbers might well surpass current levels.
Last year, persons issued with work permits and those who applied for International Protection totalled 44,258, which is close to the envisaged average from 2027. Yet that figure does not account for EU nationals moving to the country who do not require work permits, nor to the families and dependents of persons working here, nor to students.
Indeed, as we discussed here two weeks ago, less than 23% of those who EU statistics show were granted first permits by the Irish state for any reason in 2023, were for reasons of work. And to further cast a sceptical light on the CSO figures – while they cite 75,000 immigrants in 2022 as a high which will steadily decline, that actually rose to 85,793 in 2023.
I would therefore have as much, in fact arguably more, basis for projecting a population in 2057 of over 8 million on current levels of immigration which show no sign of tapering off as the CSO does for theirs. In which event, the population of the state alone will have returned to what it was for the entire island prior to An Gorta Mór, except that approaching half will have been born overseas.
So, the assumptions on which the report are based are already out of skew. As I and others have consistently said they were – and have shown how they were since 2020 when examining the statistical elements on which the National Development Plan and the grandiosely named Project 2040 were based. They bear about as much relation now to what is likely to happen here as someone who claims he knows who will win the first three races at Pontefract.
At least the state and its statisticians are now recognising what many people have been saying about the direction in which the demographics of the Irish state are headed. Two years ago anyone who claimed that the population of the state born overseas was inexorably heading towards 30% and 40% was dismissed as a lunatic or conspiracy theorist. ALL of the CSO projections confirm that we were correct, even if they refuse to name the elephant in the room.
As said before, if the Irish people are happy with these changes, then so be it. But it is fair to say that the majority don’t seem to be. That is noticeable despite the subtle change in the narrative and spin being put on it all. This was evidenced last Sunday by the GAA President Jarlath Burns using his time allocated to hand over the Liam McCarthy to Clare captain Tony Kelly to deliver a speech more appropriate to an NGO hootenanny or an investment pitch for overseas corporations who need a nice hook to hang their plans to transform Ireland into a glorified industrial centre serving little other purpose than to supply them with a workforce.
If he imagines all new arrivals speaking Irish and playing hurling like demons, he might look at how this cultural renaissance has happened in France, and England, and Belgium and Holland and elsewhere.
Why would any sane state accept the demographic scenario mapped out for Ireland? And most of all why would any person or organisation who purport to be for the strengthening and advancement of Irish culture believe that reducing the Irish population will assist in the project?