One of the things fundamental to the nature of Irish politicians is that they think, by and large, in the short term, but posture over the long term. There is no better example of what I mean by that than the case of Ireland’s climate change and emissions targets.
Ireland has committed itself in law to reducing its carbon dioxide emissions by 51% by the year 2030. This is a classic example of posturing over the long term: Our politicians can stand in front of the camera and announce that enormous, epoch-defining changes are coming to Ireland because of the decisions that they have made.
However, with just six years to go until 2030, the latest Environmental Protection Agency report indicates that Ireland is on course to miss these targets by a country mile, and indeed that the first half of that project – due to end in 2026 – will see Ireland substantially behind the curve in what is a legally binding target for 2030.
The reason for this is that classic example of Irish politicians thinking short-term: With elections coming up in two weeks, and then a general election in less than a year, there is simply no political appetite to make the drastic cuts to farming, industry, flying, transport, and everything else that would be required to meet the targets.
The result, as the Irish Times pointed out yesterday, is as follows:
This will mean more stringent limits will have to be applied in the second budget period from 2026-2030, as excess GHG emissions from the preceding budget period must be carried forward to the next period. This risks the State having to curb economic activities with higher associated carbon, such as in industry or agriculture.
There are also sizeable compliance costs looming due to a likely failure by the Government to meet its EU “effort-sharing regulation” target of a 42 per cent cut by 2030. These are estimated at between €3 billion and €8 billion depending on carbon price and “flexibilities” that the EU may grant. Substantial EU fines can be applied separately for emissions failures in industry and energy sectors.
The line I’ve highlighted in bold above there has been highlighted for two reasons: First, because the language is misleading – there’s no “risk” that the state will have to curb economic activities. It is a guarantee: Either the state radically curbs farming and industry, or it will miss its targets and accrue enormous fines.
The second reason I’ve highlighted it is that the public needs to be aware that these measures are coming: The next Irish Government has been committed by law to absolutely drastic cuts to huge swathes of the Irish economy. This is the political time bomb waiting to go off. It is as foreseeable today as the immigration crisis was in 2019, back when yours truly first started writing about it: By law, the Irish Government is committed to essentially dismantling agriculture and large swathes of industry. It is committed to essentially having to make driving an activity only affordable for the super-rich. It is arguably committed to having to take severe measures to restrict airline travel. The targets that it has set for itself in law simply are not achievable any other way.
Which is, of course, the entire point of the targets: This is the trap that the Green Party, which is unlikely to be in the next Government, has been allowed by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to set for this Government’s successors: They have been signed up for Hobson’s choice: Either wreck huge swathes of the economy, or pay eye-watering fines to the EU.
The vast majority of the public, of course, do not understand any of this and therefore simply will not see the necessary (under the law) measures coming when they do come. Most people, it’s fair to say, believe that Ireland is already undertaking painful climate measures and that they are doing their part. What will happen, politically, when that same public is told that none of this is (literally) half enough, and that the pain they are feeling in their electricity bills and fuel bills and carbon taxes needs to be (literally) doubled?
I’ll make a prediction now, and we can come back to it in five years: Mark my words – within three to four years the Irish establishment will be facing public discontent over climate measures just as ferocious as they are facing over migration today. And just as immigration is the biggest issue in these local and European elections, and will likely be in the general election, so too will the climate change measures be the biggest issues in the elections due in 2029 and 2030, respectively.
Ultimately, on this one, the Greens are likely doomed to see these measures fail on the basic grounds that we live in a democracy, and voters ultimately will not put up with the things necessary to meet Ireland’s 2030 targets. Absent a black swan event like the development of nuclear fusion, this crisis is going to peak sometime over the lifetime of the next Government.
The Government will ultimately face a choice: To stick with the targets, or to abandon them. Much like immigration, this will see the establishment and the public in an entirely predictable face-off: The media, NGOs, and establishment parties simply will not see the crisis coming until it is too late, while public discontent rises.
I have written before here, and I’ll reiterate it again: The rise of a “far right” movement in Ireland is not a possibility, but an inevitability. And it’s not because Irish people are racist or bigoted or hate the environment: It’s because the Irish establishment, on climate as well as immigration, has continuously written cheques that the voters, when it comes to it, simply will not want to cash.