World Cup host city Guadalajara has been hit by a wave of violence following the death of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes in a military operation on Sunday.
In an interview with Gript this week, World of Crime Director Chris Dalby, who authored “CJNG: A Guide to Mexico’s Deadliest Cartel”, said that while the immediate “narco-blockades” witnessed in Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta are a “fairly standard response” for such organisations, the reputational damage to the region will be “colossal.”
“In five months Guadalajara is going to have games from the World Cup,” Dalby said.
“Puerto Vallarta is one of the major tourist hotspots where thousands of Americans go every single year. The damage that this does to the reputation of those areas is going to be colossal and it’s going to make a lot of people reconsider whether they’re going to engage or visit or invest in Mexico.”
The CJNG leader, who had a $15 million bounty on his head, was killed in an operation involving the Mexican military. Dalby noted that the authorities appear to have acted on intelligence provided by the United States.
“El Mencho has been hiding for years in that part of Jalisco where he was found is absolutely no surprise,” Dalby said.
“It is where analysts have believed for a long time the general area in which he was believed to be moving.”
He added that pressure was likely put on the Mexican government to act, and predicted that US President Donald Trump would take an “absolute victory lap” following the elimination of a man considered a foreign terrorist.
However, Dalby expressed concern regarding the “kingpin strategy” of removing top leaders without addressing the subsequent power vacuum. He suggested that the death of Oseguera Cervantes, who founded the CJNG and ruled it for 15 years, could lead to internal fragmentation.
“There is a chance that his son-in-law could take over, but if he doesn’t – if he doesn’t have the shoulders to carry the cartel – we could see five or six different leaders trying to claim different pieces of the CJNG empire,” he said.
“That could lead Mexico to new heights of violence.”
The potential weakness within the CJNG may also embolden rival factions. Dalby observed that groups within the Sinaloa Cartel or other organisations across Mexico might attempt to seize control of criminal economies such as drug trafficking, oil theft, and illegal mining.
“Across Mexico, you could have micro-conflicts, each of which are very violent, from different organisations trying to take advantage of this weakness within the CJNG,” Dalby remarked.
Regarding the evolution of organised crime, Dalby suggested that the next generation of drug lords, whom he described as “the invisibles,” are increasingly likely to avoid the limelight.
“The next generation of drug lords don’t want to be El Chapo, they don’t want to be El Mencho, they don’t want their names out there,” he said.
“I think what you’re going to see now is that the next generation of drug traffickers are going to be what we call ‘the Invisibles,’ where they may not even be living in Mexico.”
Despite the high-profile nature of the military operation, Dalby cautioned that the removal of Oseguera Cervantes would likely have “no impact” on the volume of drugs entering the United States.
The CJNG is widely regarded as one of the most violent and powerful criminal organisations in Mexico. Originally emerging as a splinter group of the Milenio Cartel, it expanded rapidly under the leadership of Oseguera Cervantes to become a primary rival to the Sinaloa Cartel.
The city of Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco, is one of the designated host cities for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Security remains a primary concern for international observers as the country prepares to co-host the tournament alongside the United States and Canada.