In politics, perception is almost everything.
In her piece this morning, Laura convincingly lays out a case that Paschal Donohoe was not, in fact, all he was made out to be as Minister for Finance. Readers of Gript will be well aware of his deficiencies: The fact that public spending in Ireland has more than doubled over the last decade; the fact that the government under Donohoe’s stewardship persistently ignored its own fiscal advisory council; the fact that current budgetary policy is on a headlong collision course with reality. All of those things are facts, and all reflect poorly on the World Bank’s new head honcho.
But there is another side of the story: That story is that Ireland, since 2011, has undergone a remarkable financial recovery from almost bankruptcy. How much credit Government deserves for this is debatable, and Donohoe was certainly receiving far more credit than he was due. But both domestically and internationally, the economy has been this Government’s strongest card, and Donohoe the face of it.
That matters because politics, more than anything else, is about storytelling. And the story – whether it is true or false – has already been written. If things start to take a turn for the worse economically over the next few years, the story will be that the Government lost its way when it lost Paschal Donohoe.
This is why, I think, Simon Harris has made an error that may well prove his political undoing. He has chosen to make himself Donohoe’s successor, which means that he has in effect taken sole personal responsibility for the state of Ireland’s economy. What’s more, he has done so at a time when he is perceived (probably unfairly) to be the recipient of a bountiful inheritance. On the surface level, the exchequer figures look good, debt is manageable, inflation is under control, and the Government’s public spending plans are defensible if you assume no economic downturn.
One of the unfair things about being a politician is that you get the blame for economic downturns when they happen, even though in most cases they are not your fault. The ruination of Fianna Fáil in 2011 was on foot of lousy decisions made by mortgage traders on Wall Street sparking a global financial crisis – Bertie Ahern and Charlie McCreevey had little to do with it, in truth. That did not stop Fianna Fáil from being decimated. When the public feels a downturn, it reaches for the nearest blunt object and clobbers its politicians with it.
It’s a really bad thing in all walks of life to take over a job from somebody who has been widely regarded a success, just when the warning lights are beginning to flash. David Moyes found that out when he accepted the unenviable task of succeeding Sir Alex Ferguson as Manchester United manager, and the house of cards finally collapsed. Brian Cowen found out when he succeeded Bertie Ahern. Harris, I suspect, will find it out now.
For one thing, some degree of failure is guaranteed for Harris even if there is no global economic downturn. This year’s budget was hardly a hairshirt affair, but it left Micheál Martin in the Dáil, just yesterday, having to explain why poor Irish families are being left without assistance in the face of a cold winter and mounting energy bills. This is not likely to get better: Even in the best case scenario, Government spending will have to scale back in the coming years, and Simon Harris will be the face of that hardship.
For another thing, Harris’s mode of doing politics simply is not suited to the finance brief. This is a job where every word you utter may have significant implications for the international finance markets and the cost of Irish borrowing. Even were Harris an economic whizz-kid (and he is, assuredly, not) his temptation to casual remarks about politics on social media could well be his undoing.
Third, it is not a job he can even give his full attention: He will remain Tánaiste and leader of Fine Gael in a coalition Government, constantly having to devote attention to disputes between departments and Ministers, and manage the relationship with Fianna Fáil across whole areas of legislation. This has never been done before – not once – in the history of the state. Traditionally, the leaders of coalition parties avoid the Finance job because it is simply too big. When the smaller party in a coalition holds it, the job does not traditionally go to the leader. Dick Spring gave it to Ruari Quinn. Harris has just taken on a responsibility that nobody in Irish political history has thought themselves up to.
And he has done all this in the position of succeeding a man widely perceived – there’s that word again – to have done a stand-up job.
As the party leader, he could have handled Donohoe’s successor being a failure. He could have sacked a Finance Minister seen to be underperforming, or moved them to another department. Now, there is nobody else to blame.
At 39 years of age, and with no economic or business qualifications of any kind, he has just made himself solely responsible for the entire $577bn Irish economy. And if it goes tits up, his colleagues in Fianna Fáil will know exactly where to point the finger.
Rarely, in my view, has a politician made a miscalculation as bad as this one. But perhaps he will prove us all wrong. It would be good for the country if he did