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Last month, 73% of all the Aluminum imported into the United States came from one country: Canada.
Yesterday afternoon, the American President, without any prior warning or signal to the markets, announced that from this morning, there will be a tariff of 50% on all Aluminum imports from Canada.
To be sure, this will hurt Canada. But it will also mean that for most American companies who use Aluminum in their manufacturing process – think car companies here for example – their costs rose by 50% overnight.
Predictably, the market tanked as a result. The market tanking was so predictable in fact that we can be reasonably certain that the American President will have reversed course on this latest frankly insane policy decision by the end of the week.
In addition to slapping a 50% cost increase on one of the US economy’s most vital imputs, the American President went further, suggesting once again that he is absolutely committed to abolishing the border with Canada and making that country “the 51st state”. In a subsequent post on Truth Social, he went on to say that he intends to shut down the Canadian automobile production sector permanently with tariffs unless Canada complied with his wishes to negotiate its annexation to the United States.
This is the environment into which the Irish Taoiseach, Mr. Martin, walks this morning. One might not envy him.
Also into the mix, we learned yesterday, walks the Burke family. No doubt, their trip to America is intended to highlight the case of Enoch Burke, who has now been told that the six-figure sum he owes in daily fines for repeatedly and consciously breaching a court order will be deducted from his salary at source. That is not how the Burkes will want to present the case, however: They will instead say that Enoch has been persecuted for refusing to call a boy a girl. Many readers will no doubt agree with them. I am not without sympathy myself.
I wrote on Monday that there is a substantial body of Irish opinion – a minority but a substantial body nonetheless – that is actively rooting for something to go badly wrong for Mr. Martin today. Perhaps the sudden appearance of the Burke family, or a Presidential dressing down over their case, is the kind of thing that might satisfy that urge.
But there are much greater issues at stake, issues which affect Irish citizens in a much more fundamental way than the ongoing and never-ending Burke circus.
The United States, indisputably, has turned on Canada. A much closer and dearer ally to that country than Ireland has ever been, or could hope to be. It has turned on it, demonstrably, at great economic cost to itself. That is to say, Mr. Trump’s tariff wars on Canada have in a week wiped tens of thousands of dollars off the value of the average working American’s pension fund, which is generally tied to the stock market through something called a 401(k), referring to the tax code under which their investments are structured.
It is hard to discern a logical reason for the US’s decision to attack Canada with full economic force, or the willingness of the White House to bear the economic costs of so doing. I mention it only to make the following point: A similar economic war on Ireland would be just as brutal for Ireland as it is for Canada, but at substantially lesser cost to the United States. We do not supply 73% of anything to the United States, after all.
There were, I am sure, many citizens of Canada who desired that Mr. Trump would be elected as President of the United States. There are also likely many such people who desired that if elected, Mr. Trump would wreak hell on Justin Trudeau for the latter’s many (and very real) sins against the liberty of Canadians, ranging from Trudeau’s dictatorial approach during covid to his general unctuousness and unpleasantness. The point here is simply that the economic pain being suffered by Canadians is now being suffered by Trudeau lovers and Trudeau-haters alike. A trade war does not discriminate based on your political preferences.
Mr. Martin’s objective today is a single one: To avoid bringing Ireland to the negative attention of a President whose most devoted supporters would struggle to deny is impulsive and reactive and prone to acting on the last words that he has heard. Or to put it in perhaps plainer terms, his job is to kiss the Presidential ass if that is what it takes to keep this country out of the crosshairs of the Oval Office.
I have, as it happens, few doubts that he will do it. Mr. Martin is perhaps not a practiced ass-kisser, but I am sure he is a more than capable one. Plus, this whole event has become one of those things for the Irish Media where all are agreed that the Green Jersey is paramount and whatever sacrifices of dignity must be made are bearable. So long as Mr. Martin returns with the country’s economy intact, he will get a hero’s welcome.
I’ll tell you who will not, though: The Burkes. It is one thing to criticise the country at home. But if anybody thinks that the Irish Public will forgive or indulge a family’s efforts to try and sabotage their country in front of the Americans, then those people are sorely mistaken.
We call it the Green Jersey for a reason. Most of us, in this country, love wearing it. The preponderance of opinion within the country, whether you like it or not, will be rooting for Mr. Martin today. Not his critics.
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