There is no getting away from the fact that the general election proved to be a disappointment for those hoping to see a solidification of the anti-establishment forces to the right.
Of the more than 2.2 million votes cast, just over 300,000 went to parties and candidates that fit broadly into that category on the basis of their positions regarding immigration, abortion, censorship and others outside of the liberal consensus – a figure that equated to 13.65% of the total votes cast.
Included in this category are Aontú, Independent Ireland, smaller parties on the right who made little or no impact, and a number of mostly incumbent TDs such as Carol Nolan and Mattie McGrath.
Both Aontú – which elected two TDs; Peadar Tóibín in Meath West and Paul Lawless in Mayo and took 3.9% – and Independent Ireland which now has 4 TDs and secured 3.6% can feel reasonably satisfied with their performances.
The smaller parties including those in the National Alliance and the Irish Freedom Party were nowhere in contention for a seat, even in Dublin West where Councillor Patrick Quinlan took less than 3% of the votes. Although he performed somewhat better, Councillor Gavin Pepper in Dublin North West, with 5.6% of the vote was also never in contention for one of the three seats.
The overall total vote for this category was both down in absolute terms from over 380,000 on a lower turnout in the June European and local elections which in the European poll amounted to 21.5% of the vote.
When translated into seats, there are just 13 of the 174 TDs who are part of that broad bloc. Which is just 7.4% of the number of elected deputies and they are divided among themselves into four separate groupings including what will now be a new Independent Ireland formation alongside the two Aontú members.
For comparative purposes, the Social Democrats and Labour between them now have 20 seats on a vote share of 9.5%. Just two points ahead of the combined total for Aontú and Independent Ireland but one that has translated itself into more than three times the number of seats won.
Quite a number of those left seats went to candidates who were fairly low in first preference share but who benefitted from a left transfer that went across not only the two softer left parties but included Sinn Féin, People Before Profit and even the Greens to some extent.
In contrast there were a number of constituencies such as Cavan-Monaghan, Dublin West, Dublin Bay North, Dublin Mid West, Galway East, and Sligo Leitrim where there was close to a quota had there been just one candidate fishing from broadly the same pool, or even had there been something similar to the “transfer left” informal pact on the other side.
There were at least as many other constituencies where there was somewhere above or close to half a quota and again we witnessed large numbers of candidates being elected from that position on the left.
The reasons why the vote fell and failed to be translated into seats goes beyond the fractionalisation of that vote. Politically there can be little doubt but that the main parties – both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail through at least appearing to take a strong line on deportations and other immigration related matters, while Sinn Féin unashamedly moved to the “right” – retrieved much of the votes they had lost around this issue.
Sinn Féin ironically possibly lost much of its 2020 vote share and the sort of polling numbers the party was hitting a year ago to the left. They were more successful particularly in Dublin and other urban centres in halting and even partially reversing the haemorrhage of working class votes on the issue.
That shift was also assisted by the fact that, unlike in the local elections, their candidates had mostly better name recognition and in most cases a good reputation as competent TDs. That was entirely absent in the vast majority of cases on the other side.
It is unlikely that either the outgoing government parties, if returned, or Sinn Féin, will hold fast to their strategic posturing as being tougher on immigration. It is not an issue that is going to go away, but for those wishing that it and other issues on which the vast majority of members of the Dáil concur the elections must act as a wake up call.