Aontú leader, Meath West TD and Midlands North West European Candidate, Peadar Tóibín has questioned the validity of the “North of Ireland Subvention Possible Unification Effects” report. An Teachta Tóibín stated:
“When the men and women of 1916 and 1918 were making the case for Irish independence, there were many people at the time who fear mongered that leaving the Union with Britain would be costly and that there would be economic uncertainty. But their generation emerged from the ashes of the Famine. They knew that there was a massive cost to be ruled by London. They knew that self-determination was a key component of economic survival and development”.
“The Northern economy is stagnant because of the lack of self-determination. The people of Newry are just as bright as the people of Dundalk, the people of Dungannon are just has hard working as the people of Monaghan, the people of Derry are just as enterprising as the people of Letterkenny. The London government is only focused on the Home Counties of England. Even Scotland, the north of England and Wales have suffered due to the lack of focus necessary to grow their economies. London government’s know nothing about the north and care even less”.
“Add to this the fact that partition has stunted the economic development of not just the north but also 6 southern border counties. Under partition the north has gone from the industrial engine of Ireland to a National Income a fraction of the south. I also think that we have to get out of the mind frame of dependency for the north. Some in Unionists see success as the north surviving on handouts from London. The North has a proud history as an industrial and economic hub. It has all the ingredients necessary to achieve that again. But it can only happen with self-determination”.
“The “North of Ireland Subvention Possible Unification Effects” report has a number of major problems. It takes as a given that the North of Ireland would exit with a portion of British National Debt. The burdening of Ireland with British debt is not a given. Also none of the estimates include savings from reducing public sector duplication. Pensions have been paid for by people’s national security contributions in the north. There is a social contract in a democracy that when you pay while you are working you will receive your pension from current taxation when you retire. The British government would owe pensions to people who have paid contributions up until Unity”.
“Incredibly the report leaves out the elephant in the room, that in a united Ireland, the north’s economy would be turbo boosted. It would be working off a significantly lower cost base, would reap the benefits of a lower corporation tax base, better productivity and better integration in the Irish and EU markets. In 2016, I researched the first report into the all Ireland Economy, since partition, by an Oireachtas Committee. I interviewed over 100 people from different backgrounds in the north, academics, business people, trade unions, trade organisations, public representatives, farmers and state officials. Despite their differing backgrounds all of them were of the view that, if we plan together, fund together and deliver services together, they will be stronger, better services and they will cost less and be more efficient”.
“This report is also contradicted by numerous other reports on the topic. The Modelling of Irish Unification report by Kurt Hubner from the University of British Columbia estimated that with the Euro, with the same corporation tax as the south, with increases in productivity, with self-government and a foreign direct investment drive, there could be a €36 billion boost to Ireland north and south. This is highly significant. In 2021 political scientist, Prof John Doyle produced a detail research paper that indicated that the subvention needed to run the north of Ireland after Unity would be €3bn. It was his view that the subvention was “within a range that a future state could cope with on a transitional basis”.
“Irish Unity would create a bigger home market, more economies of scale, a stronger voice in the EU and less expensive duplication. There exists two separate tax regimes, two currencies, two legal systems, two police forces, two health systems, two education systems, two separate competing economies, three tourism bodies and 26 government departments. We are paying for Invest NI and the IDA offices all around the world to compete against each other. Duplication does not come free, but is paid for out of your pocket. Given the growing support for Irish Unity, its time that the government undertook comprehensive modelling of the likely economic outcomes of a Unity Ireland”.
Peadar Tóibín is a TD for Meath West