It’s worth remembering, before commencing any discussion of the US Republican primaries, that the first votes are still about half a year away from being cast. There’s an entire season of NFL football to be played (go Jets!) along with Thanksgiving, Christmas, and, knowing American politics, about forty seven debates and about a billion dollars in advertising.
But for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, widely assumed to be the only person capable of denying Donald Trump a third consecutive Republican nomination, it might be getting late, early:
Signs are piling up that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is hitting “reset” on his 2024 presidential bid, including by firing campaign staff, scaling back his travel and shaking up his media strategy.
Why it matters: Republican support for DeSantis has dipped below the 20% mark in RCP’s average of polls for the first time since mid-May. The popular GOP governor’s months-long, downward trajectory has stirred speculation that he’s destined for a Scott Walker-like flameout.
Driving the news: DeSantis’ team sought to reassure donors about the state of the race yesterday in Tallahassee, Florida, where officials emphasized that presidential campaigns go through growing pains, Bloomberg reports.
Even as someone relatively sympathetic to the DeSantis campaign it has not, as yet, been a case study in political effectiveness: The Governor has been caught in a tight spot since the day he entered the race, in that he has to run against Donald Trump while not offending or criticising Donald Trump, for fear of alienating the ranks of Trump devotees in his party. Trump, meanwhile, need not play by the same rules, and has been relentless in attacking DeSantis from the left, the right, and, well, anywhere at all he can find a suitable stick.
It should also be said at this point that for all its failings to date, DeSantis’s campaign remains the only viable threat to Trumpalooza Episode Three: No other candidate in the election is in double figures. Talk to DeSantis fans online, and they’ll tell you that eventually, when the likes of South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, or former Vice President Pence drops out, most of their support is going to flow towards DeSantis.
“His advantage, if you can call it that”, one said to me, “is that if you’re not voting Trump now, you’re probably not voting for him in the primary full stop”.
Thus if it becomes a two man race, the theory goes, Trump’s big lead might suddenly evaporate.
But history suggests this is wishcasting, rather than analysis: There is equally every chance that if Pence departs, much of his vote flows to Scott, or vice versa. And suddenly, in January, the race has Trump at 45, with two other candidates at 20 per cent apiece, with neither wanting to drop out. If that happens, it’s likely over.
Which brings us to the elephant in the room: One of the oldest sayings in politics is that “he who wields the knife rarely wears the crown”. It is eminently possible that Trump could be attacked hard enough in the GOP primary campaign to weaken his support. But it is also likely that the person who did the attacking would not benefit from it, because of their perceived “disloyalty” to Donald Trump.
If DeSantis cannot attack Trump, and Trump (as he has indicated) will not debate, then what’s the road back?
One of the bigger problems is simple enough: The obvious case to make against Trump is something along the lines of “he had four good-ish years, but he’s sadly such damaged goods now that he cannot win the election, and we need someone else”.
The polls bear this out: Recent polling shows that not only do 60% or more of Americans view Trump unfavourably, but clear majorities think he should be convicted of the crimes with which he has been charged. This would make any other candidate so obviously unelectable as to make voters think long and hard about nominating them.
The problem appears to be that Trump supporters no longer believe it, for one very good, and one very bad, reason. The very good reason is that they heard it all before, in 2016, when they were assured he could not win, and he did.
The very bad reason is that many of them persist in the belief that he actually won in 2020, and that their candidate can only ever lose if he has been cheated. This leads them to discount losing as a possibility entirely: If Trump can’t lose, and can only be cheated, then an argument that he might not win simply isn’t going to work.
DeSantis has two final problems, which is going to be hard to surmount: First, he is facing an unholy alliance of Trump on the one hand, and Trump’s most sworn enemies on the other hand – both of whom are desperate for Trump to get the nomination. Trump and his supporters seek it as vindication. Democrats seek it because their mouths water at the thought of running against Trump again.
Second, the infrastructure of the Republican party remains terrified of Trump and his undying thirst for petty vengeance: Being seen to be anything but “loyal” to Trump now invites mean tweets – or “truths” and a primary campaign against you later. This is depriving DeSantis of fair treatment in the right wing media, let alone the mainstream media.
If you’re an optimist, there remains a good case for DeSantis ultimately winning: Voters are not paying that much attention for now. The debates will quickly narrow the field. Trump has yet more legal troubles ahead. DeSantis remains a very fine candidate in his own right.
But if, like me, you’re an instinctive pessimist, then I’m afraid it looks increasingly like Trump, and his supporters, are going to have to learn the hard way, again, that his character and conduct repels the majority of normal people.