Let me tell you a secret, dear reader: When one Sunday Newspaper runs a story about how there is growing dissatisfaction within Fine Gael, and the time may be coming for a leadership change, that might just be a coincidence. A journalist with nothing else to write who knows a disgruntled backbencher or two who might want a bit of a moan, and phones the backbencher up for a story.
When three Sunday Newspapers run the exact same story, it is not a coincidence. That is what we might call “co-ordinated briefing”. You’d be forgiven for thinking somebody in Fine Gael wants to get this message out.
Here’s the Sunday Business Post:
A change of leader in Fine Gael before the next election has “suddenly come on the agenda”, according to party sources, with Simon Harris viewed as a clear favourite to succeed Leo Varadkar.
It comes as several members of the parliamentary party have expressed concern that Varadkar’s return to the Taoiseach’s office has seen “a rudderless drift” engulf the party.
Discussions among Fine Gael TDs about the post-Varadkar landscape focus heavily on Simon Harris, the Higher Education Minister who has just completed a high-profile stint in the justice portfolio. “Simon Harris came out of the womb wanting to be leader of a political party and taoiseach of Ireland,” said one TD. “I doubt he’d even be challenged.
And the Sunday Times:
According to most asked by The Sunday Times, Simon Harris, the further education minister, would be the clear favourite to take over from Varadkar “if there was a vote in the morning”.
Who on earth, I wonder, could be behind a co-ordinated effort to get three Sunday Newspapers to run articles talking down Leo Varadkar’s leadership, and uniformly identifying Simon Harris as his most likely successor? It’s a real mystery.
Or is it? For what it’s worth, informed Fine Gaelers who are no fans of Harris tell me he’s not behind it: In fact, they say, the straw that broke the camel’s back and drove so many of them to the Sundays was, of all things, Leo Varadkar’s tribute to the late Senator Paul Coghlan:
“I served with him in the Oireachtas between 2007 and his retirement in 2020. But even before that, as Councillor, Paul offered encouragement and practical support. He was very collegial and affable in his approach to politics. He would talk to anyone and fell out with no one. While we did not always see eye to eye on policy, he was always very kind, very good company and he will be missed by his colleagues and party.”
That line about policy is being taken, rightly or wrongly, to refer to Varadkar’s only known disagreement with Coghlan – the gay marriage referendum in 2015. Many Fine Gael TDs and Senators saw it as a little bit of virtue signalling at the expense of a dead colleague and were appalled by it, your correspondent is reliably told.
Nevertheless, there were clearly those waiting in the wings and quite eager to stick the boot in.
Minister Harris has, of course, just finished a stint in the Department of Justice, filling in for Helen McEntee. An un-named source told the Sunday Business Post that “It’s a sad reality, but Simon has proved himself to be a great Minister for Justice”. High praise indeed. even if dubious.
As for me, my job is to offer you an opinion about the notion of making Simon Harris Taoiseach, so here it is: It is the kind of thing that only a fundamentally unserious party, or country, would do.
This is a man who has not yet reached the age of 40 and who has never held a normal job of any consequence outside of politics. He is a man whose perceived incompetence as Minister for Health was the cause of the last election, when the Oireachtas decided it had no confidence in him. He is a man with no legislative accomplishments of any note, and whose sole claim to fame is being the Government’s face of the repeal referendum in 2018. Making him Taoiseach would be to abandon any idea that the country values competence or experience in Government.
None of this, incidentally, is a defence of Varadkar, but it is notable that their careers follow similar paths: Varadkar was also elected to his present office at a young age and without much by way of a record. He was also a great man for a soundbite or a media quote. He was also transparently ambitious.
The trouble is that Varadkar has shown himself to be an ineffective administrator and a poor and arrogant communicator. Replacing him with Harris would not be to undo a mistake, but to double down on one.
A serious party might choose somebody like Heather Humphreys: She had a long and successful management career before entering politics. She is in touch with the grassroots of her party. She projects seriousness. Or, it might turn to Paschal Donohoe: Another candidate with a long and successful career before entering politics, with experience handling one of the great offices of state.
Simon Harris? If they did that, they’d deserve obliteration. To an even greater extent than they already do.