This thing is going to end in disaster:
Homeowners who open their doors to Ukrainian refugees are unlikely to be offered financial compensation, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has indicated.
The British government has said people doing so will be paid £350 a month if they can offer refugees a spare room or property for a minimum period of six months under a scheme allowing those fleeing the war to enter the UK regardless of whether they have family ties.
Mr Varadkar on Sunday indicated that while such a scheme had been discussed, it was not being planned in Ireland.
“What we are really saying to people is that it is an altruistic thing, not something we would intend to pay people to do,” he said.
Maybe “disaster” is too strong a word. Perhaps “disappointment” is more accurate. Either way, the problems are obvious. My colleague Niamh reported yesterday that this is not, of course, the first time such a scheme has been floated: Over 700 Irish people offered to take in Syrian refugees in 2014. By the time the wheat had been sorted from the chaff, that number fell to…. 44 usable accommodations.
The idea that 20,000 Irish people are going to be able to offer accommodation, therefore, is a fantasy, and a dangerous fantasy. It is abundantly clear that, once again in Ireland, the country is engaged in a headlong charge towards a group-thought solution, and writing cheques it will be unable to cash. Yesterday, for example, the Government started musing that perhaps Ireland might accomodate up to two hundred thousand Ukrainians – double their previous, also unrealistic, estimate.
But based on the 2014 numbers, and being generous, we can probably expect 20,000 offers to turn into 2,000 useable beds, and no more than that. Of that number, we have no idea how long these offers will last for. The Government is essentially asking people to take in lodgers for no fee for an unknown period of time. Some people will do it, but many more will do it for a few months at the longest.
The war in Ukraine shows no signs of being over soon: It is now almost a month old. Already, the destruction is apocalyptic. Eastern Cities like Kharkiv and Mariopol may not be liveable in for years after the war has ended. If there was peace tomorrow, many of these refugees simply have no homes to go to.
None of this is an argument for doing nothing. It is clear that there are likely to be several million Ukrainians with no homes to go to in the short to medium term, and it is very clear that Ireland as a member of the EU – whether readers like it or not – will be obliged to help these people. Indeed, even without that obligation, it is objectively the right thing to do. The difficulty is that this plan clearly will not work.
There are really two alternatives: Either offer people money for their services in accommodating a Ukrainian family, or make the necessary investments now in medium term accommodation for Ukrainian families. There are options: Ireland has several disused Army Barracks, for example, which could be converted into accommodation centres. These are generally located near towns. It is clear that something like this will be needed, so it would be better to start work on it now.
The other point is this: The Ukrainian situation is a very genuine refugee crisis. It makes sense, then, to prioritise people from Ukraine for entry. If we are to help, we need to prioritise our resources. That should mean deporting those people who are here and under deportation orders, and significantly scaling back refugee applications from other parts of the world. There is no war in Africa, at present, on this scale. Nor is there one in the middle east.
The patience of Irish voters for this situation will be considerable, but it will not be endless. This programme needs to be properly planned, and prioritised, and funded. At the moment, we are all clapping ourselves on the back for flying by the seats of our pants. It’s not good enough.