Yes, many of you will roll your eyes at the headline, but, you know what? These results are, in fact, very very very good indeed:
The Pfizer booster trial is pretty spectacular.
10k previously 2x dosed (median 11 months from dose 2).
Randomised 1:1 placebo and 30ug.
95.6% relative risk reduction in symptomatic infection in intervention arm vs control (2dose only).
5 v 109 events 7+ days from boost.
— Devan Sinha (@DevanSinha) October 21, 2021
Pfizer’s trial divided participants into two groups of people. Both groups were previously double-jabbed with the Pfizer vaccine.
One group received a third jab of the Pfizer vaccine. The other group received a placebo (IE, an injection of saline solution designed to do nothing).
In the group that received the placebo, there were 109 covid events in the week after getting their fake injection. In the group that received a third dose, there were just five such events.
In other words, the group that received the booster had 95.6% fewer cases than the group who received the placebo.
That suggests that, at least in the short term, the boosters work. Which is why the Irish public will undoubtedly be offered them (and will take them, en masse) in the coming weeks and months.
There is, however, an obvious question which is very fair to ask: How long will the booster shots last?
We know, for example, that Pfizer’s own analysis suggests that within six months, the effectiveness of the original two-jab protocol fell from about 90% to about 60%. That is a major factor in the increase in covid cases we are seeing in heavily vaccinated populations right now (though, it should be said, the fall-off is much less marked in terms of ICU numbers).
So, isn’t it logical that immunity from the booster jab will wane in time, too?
Well, yes, and no, in that the data suggests that if immunity from the booster wanes, it will wane more slowly. Look at this graph, showing results of the trial in people who got the third jab. The green bars represent the prevalence of covid antibodies:
As you can see, according to Pfizer’s data, the third jab boosts antibody levels to a level far, far, higher than the second jab did, which suggests both that the initial levels of protection provided would be much higher, and would take significantly longer to decline. If that data is correct, then that makes an unambiguous argument in favour of the boosters.
Now, there are two obvious caveats: You may not believe the Pfizer data and may simply not trust a pharma company, in which case, little will convince you to the contrary. But this data is verifiable and scrutinised by independent authorities in both the EU and the USA. There is absolutely no evidence of any kind that it is false or fabricated.
The second caveat is around safety: There is no evidence at all that the third jab is unsafe, but, it should be noted, the approvals given to Pfizer and other vaccine companies at the start of the year were for a two-jab protocol, not a three jab protocol. If you are concerned about a lack of long-term safety data for this vaccine, then there is nothing here that will convince you to change your mind.
My own view, for what it’s worth, is that on balance, if offered a booster, I will take it. The data in these trials is exceedingly positive, and the safety record of the vaccine to date poses me no concerns whatever.
From a Government point of view, it seems that rapidly deploying the boosters, as soon as they are approved, is the logical step. Politicians want to be seen to “beat” covid. While that is a pipe dream, there’s little doubt that the boosters are the only obvious way to deliver a short to medium term reduction in cases.
The problem, of course, lies in the civil liberties side of things, as it relates to vaccine passports and discrimination against those who do not wish to take a jab. But in Pfizer’s defence, that’s a political issue, and a result of public hysteria. It is not a result of their trials.